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Tropical East Pacific Satellite



NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230348
TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Hurricane Willa is centered near 20.5N 107.2W at 23/0300 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 75 nm of the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 210 nm of the center. Heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of mainland Mexico from 104W to 107W through Tue evening as Willa tracks NE and inland Mexico. Large swells generated by Willa will continue to reach the mainland Mexican coast and the southern Gulf of California between 102W and 108W through Tue night, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Vicente is centered near 16.4N 102.0W at 23/0300 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 120 nm of the center and are likely causing localized flooding along the Mexican coast. Vicente will continue on a general northwestward track through the central Mexican offshore waters and weaken to remnant low late Tue and dissipate Tue night. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Vicente. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. …TROPICAL WAVE…

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 93W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 08N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH… The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama and northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N83W, and continues SW through a tropical wave at 07N93W then turns NW to 13N110W, then turns SW through an embedded 1008 mb surface low at 11.5N116W to 09N124W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which then continues W-NW to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of lines from 08N81W to 08N91W, and from 11N99W to 13N100W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed along the ITCZ within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N135W to 11N140W.

DISCUSSION

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO… See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Vicente and Willa. W of the Baja california Peninsula…Moderate to locally fresh NW flow expected through early Wed when the pressure gradient will begin to relax. Large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa will continue to propagate N through the waters W of Baja reaching as far N as 26N late Tue night while NW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, propagates S across the waters N of 27N. Seas should subside to less than 8 ft by Wed afternoon.

Gulf of California: Light, Fresh to locally strong NW winds, and seas to 12 ft, are expected S of 25.5N through late Tue night as Willa passes S of the gulf entrance. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are possible across the gulf waters s of 25N through the rest of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec…Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected through late Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…

Gulf of Papagayo…Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Wed morning. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA… Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on Tropical Cyclone Willa.

A 1008 mb low near 11.5N116W will drift NW for the next several days with fresh southerly flow, and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast within 210 nm SE of the low. This low has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the 5 days. A surface high will meander near 28N138W. An area of locally strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 10N to 17N W of 135W for the next several days. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W on Tue night and reach from 32N130W to 20N140W on Wed night and from 32N120W to 10N135W on Thu night. $$
Nelson