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Tropical East Pacific Satellite



NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 15 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N82W to 05N92W to 02N102W, where latest scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N115W to 04N125W and to 05N140W.

Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 86W and 88W, within 30 nm south of the trough
between 90W and 92W and also south of the trough within 30 nm of
03N96W.

DISCUSSION

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO… A dissipating cold front connected to a 1012 mb low over southern Nevada extends southwestward to across central Baja California and to near 26N116W. Southwest to west 20 to 25 kt winds within 30 nm south of the front over the northern Gulf of California will diminish this evening as the remaining portion of
the front dissipated inland northwestern Mexico. Elsewhere south
of the front to 19N, generally weak high pressure is currently allowing for mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over those waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Over the far northern waters, the next approaching large set of northwest swell is bringing seas of 6 to 9 ft to those waters. Fresh northwest to north winds behind the front will be on the increasing trend through tonight. The 6 to 9 ft seas will build to 8 to 11 ft west of Baja California on Sat and to 10 to 16 ft Sat night and Sun as the tightening of the pressure gradient due to an unusually strong ridge that builds southeastward over the region during the weekend will continue to increase the northwest
winds, reaching the strong range, over across all of the offshore
waters of the Baja Peninsula.

South of 19N to near 16N, northwest to north gentle to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds on Sat through
Sun, with present seas there of 4 to 6 ft expected to build to 8 to 10 ft west of 109W. South of 16N, Gentle west to northwest to north winds will change little through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…

Fresh northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to
the moderate range Sat afternoon and change little through Sun
night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will remain across the
forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 12N96W on Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA… The tail-end of the above mentioned dissipating cold front
extends to near 21N125W. In the wake of the front, strong high pressure centered well to the northwest of the area is building southeastward across the northern and central portions of the
area. To the southeast of this front, a trough is analyzed from near 19N125W to 09N132W. The tight gradient between the trough and the high pressure is resulting in strong to near gale force winds from 10N to 16N west of 137W along with seas in the range
of 10 to 13 ft. The trough is forecast to weaken through Sat
allowing for these winds to diminish to mainly strong winds into
Sun over the area primarily from 10N to 21N W of 127W, and from 21N to 29N west of 134w, with seas of 10 to 14 ft in northwest to
north swell. This northwest swell will overspread the entire area by the end of the weekend, with slow decay expected to begin
late Sun into Mon.

Abundant mid and upper-level moisture in the form of overcast to
broken mid and upper-level clouds continues to stream northeastward
in strong jet stream related southwest flow over the northwest part of the area with embedded areas of rain and possible scattered showers.

$$
Aguirre