CPHC
Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin
Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday evening.
This is the final tropical weather outlook of the 2011 central north Pacific hurricane season. The next regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook will be issued on June 1 2012. Special outlooks will be issued as needed if a significant weather system forms during the off-season.
KINEL
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression ALETTA Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast/Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)
National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 114.7W MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. ALETTA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND CENTERED NEAR 13N101W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE NW.
…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 13N101W 1008 MB TO 13N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N TO 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 100W.
DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 115W IS ANCHORED BY TD ALETTA NEAR 13N115W AND A BROAD LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 13N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N95W IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION E OF 116W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS…AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EVIDENT FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION…EXCEPT NEAR TD ALETTA AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURETHE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WHILE WEAKER THAN NORMAL TRADE WINDS CONTINUE W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL GENERATE NLY SWELL THAT WILL PUSH S OF 30N THROUGH SAT.
$$
MUNDELL
National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
NHC Atlantic Outlook
NHC Atlantic Outlook
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT…AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
NNNN
NHC East Pacific Outlook
NHC East Pacific Outlook
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA…LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT…AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
