NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032110
TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 03 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 06N86W TO 04N102W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N102W TO 07N114W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 117W.

DISCUSSION

HIGH PRES 1020 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT…THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FRONT WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 15 FT ARE COVERING THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM FORCE LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 45N143W WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA SUN WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA. GAP WINDS…

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. WINDS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE DOWNSTREAM WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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