000 FXHW60 PHFO 171937 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST THU MAY 17 2012 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS LATER TODAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES ON THE BIG ISLAND WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERY LOOKING CLOUDS IS SEEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY AND THEN SPREAD UP THE REST OF THE CHAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BAND OF CLOUDS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT BEHIND THE BAND SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO DROP OFF A BIT FROM PRESENT LEVELS. UNDER THE LIGHTER TRADE WIND REGIME LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES MAY DEVELOP IN SOME PLACES THOUGH THE MEAN BACKGROUND FLOW WILL REMAIN TRADES. ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUD BAND MOVES THROUGH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AS WELL AS OVER THE KONA SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS PICKING BACK UP TO MODERATE LEVELS. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WITH ISOL MVFR OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW 7 KFT LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BURKE DISCUSSION...BURKE AVIATION...MORRISON MARINE...BURKE
NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion
