000 FXHW60 PHFO 040135 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 335 PM HST FRI FEB 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. LARGE AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED MID WEEK ALONG EXPOSED NORTH FACING BEACHES. && .DISCUSSION... WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY LATE SUNDAY AND STALL WHERE IT WILL WASHOUT MONDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN RISING OVER KAUAI/OAHU TOMORROW NIGHT AS PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER KAUAI/OAHU BEGINNING EARLIER SUNDAY...SUNDAY EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY. HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND MORE VIGOROUS FRONT WILL REACH THE KAUAI MID DAY TUESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY. STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE GUSTS LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TUESDAY. CERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT NOTICEABLY DRIER COOLER AIR ACROSS THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD REACH 20 TO 30 MPH MAKING IT SEEM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. THE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE DIRECTION THURSDAY-FRIDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 915 AM HST FRIDAY/ TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN FURTHER TODAY GIVING WAY TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIMITED RAINFALL. LEEWARD SECTIONS MAY SEE A SHALLOW SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUD DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHEAST FACING MAUI AND PUNA/KAU DISTRICTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED FOR TODAYS SHIFT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/STATE HEADLINES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A STRONG ZONAL JET WILL PREVAIL ALONG 35N THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO DEVELOP AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AFFECT THE ISLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES THE AREA. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH THE WESTERN ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHARP TROUGH ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS CROSS THE AREA. A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FAST MOVING FRONT. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY AS WELL. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE DEEP PARENT LOW AND FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW OF 20-30 MPH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT ON KAUAI...REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ADVECT A MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE STATE BRINGING COOLER WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS BACK TO A TYPICAL TRADE REGIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF BIG ISLAND AS WELL OVER EAST MAUI DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS. && .MARINE... SURF WILL BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS PREPARING TO DISH OUT SOME EXTREMELY LARGE SURF NEXT WEEK. SURF WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD FURTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REACHING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS LEVELS. THE CONSISTENT MIXED PERIOD NATURE OF THE SWELL COMBINED WITH PRE-DAWN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES IS NOT ONLY DANGEROUS...BUT POSES SIGNIFICANT RISK TO COASTAL STRUCTURES AND PROPERTY. HIGH SURF WARNINGS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATER THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHTING THESE THREATS. THE SURF FORECAST WAS UPDATED AT 300 PM. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT FOR MORE DETAIL. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...DEJESUS AVIATION...BURKE PREVIOUS...RYSHKO
NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion
