0-2 foot
0-2 foot
2-4+ foot
1-3 foot

The south swell that was generated by a strong low in the southern hemisphere about a week ago continues to impact south-facing shores, although it has peaked and is on its way down. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the south facing shores through Saturday afternoon.

Model output is still depicting a more active pattern evolving across the northern Pacific for the upcoming holiday weekend, in response to Tropical Cyclone Sanvu near Japan and a gale-force low currently near the eastern Aleutians. If these features continue to develop as forecast, a small west-northwest (300°) swell and a larger north-northwest (330-350°) swell remain possible for next week.

The king tides will be in full swing during the 3 day Labor Day weekend and Tuesday. The maximum impact will occur during the period of high tide, slated for the afternoon hours. Time of high tide for Maui are as follows… 1:10 pm HST Saturday, 1:35 pm HST Sunday, 2:01 pm HST on Monday, and 2:26 pm on Tuesday. The tides are still running about half a foot higher than normal from last month’s king tide. Beach flooding is likely for some beaches through Tuesday, although the threat of flooding lowers after Monday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.2 foot at 5:56 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 2.4 foot at 1:10 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 7:39 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:09 am this morning and will set at 06:40 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 11 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 7:04 AM on Wednesday, September 6th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

Wind: n/a at 0 mph
current observations as of 7am October 20th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Light winds with warm and muggy conditions will prevail across the islands into the middle of next week. Vog will also be likely beginning on Sunday as background flow shifts southeasterly. Daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes will be the dominant weather pattern. Afternoon clouds and few showers are expected for interior and upslope areas. Nights will be mostly clear with sunny mornings.

Skies are generally fair this early Saturday morning except for windward Maui and around the Big Island. The most notable ocarinas up to now is with the heavy showers that formed around midnight between Waikoloa and Captain Cook on the lee side of the Big Island. These hard-to-die showers warranted a couple of Flood Advisories, and it its only in past hours that these showers are showing signs of dissipating. Tops of these showers got up to 15k feet. Some of the noteworthy rainfall totals from these showers had Waiaha at 3.01 inches, Kealakekua at 2.18 inches during the past 12 hours ending at 245 am HST. The bulk of the totals came within the last 3 hours. Please refer to the Hawaii Rainfall Summary for more details.

Infrared satellite imagery shows a rather large area of clouds and showers passing just east of the Big Island, occasionally scraping the Puna district. The bulk of the this cloud mass is expected to stay over the waters the rest of the day. Otherwise, there isn’t much showers around under this light trade wind regime. The area of clouds approaching Kauai, appears to have fallen apart. But this moisture may reappear over Kauai this afternoon in the form of clouds and showers when daytime heating and light winds are mixed in.

As noted in the previous discussion, precipitable waters (PW) values will be highest at around 1.3 to 1.4 inches over Kauai through Sunday night. The PW drops to 1 inches over windward Big Island. Then we will be dealing with another upper level trough that will be pushing through the islands between now and Monday. The upper trough does not have the dynamics such as a pocket of cool air, it is mainly a wind shift feature. But it does have limited capabilities such as raising the low level inversion from the current 6 to 8k feet to 8 to 10k feet by this evening across the smaller islands, and to as high as the summits of the Big Island. PW forecast also points to a pocket high PW of 1.2, 1.3 inches on the lee side of the Big Island. PW’s rises to between 1.3 and 1.5 inches on Monday.

In brief, it looks like the next 4 afternoons, through Tuesday, will have some scattered shower activity, favoring leeward Big Island, interior and leeward Kauai and Oahu. Spotty, isolated pop up showers are likely across Maui County, especially in the afternoons.

The wind forecast looks on track with light trades becoming light southerlies on Sunday, then turning light and variable on Monday and persisting through Tuesday. We expect vog to spread in with the southerlies on Sunday, then linger to until the trades return on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The High wind advisory for the Big Island summits is canceled.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 87 to 92. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Partly cloudy. Chance of showers early in the evening, then slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 56 to 68. East winds around 10 mph until early morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs around 84 at the shore to around 71 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91 at the shore to 72 to 78 upcountry. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - September 2nd, 2017