We should see a building south swell today potentially reaching head-high levels at the better exposed breaks. South facing shores should see surf rising into the 2-5 foot range with a secondary, large pulse expected later in the day or overnight into Thursday, peaking under advisory levels. This should be a long lived and much needed swell, hopefully sticking around into the weekend. Windswell along our east facing shores should stay about the same around 1-3 foot and weak, with little wrap expected for our north and northeast facing shores. North and northwest facing shores will stay more or less flat around 0-3 foot with no swell to mention… yet. Our first swell of the upcoming Autumn season is developing far northwest of Hawai`i and it’s showing some great potential. Details below…

0-3 foot
0-2 foot
2-5 foot
1-3 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Pacific Peak Wave Height
Small to moderate surf is expected to build today along our south facing shores, produced by a storm south-southeast of New Zealand last week. Much of this energy was aimed better toward the east of the state so we are expected to only receive more of an edge-pass due to angular spreading rather than a direct shot. However, the same system took a sharp turn toward the north-northeast around Thursday of last week. Although this occurred a little out of our swell window, a decent amount of this energy should fill in overnight tonight to peak Thursday just under advisory levels. Continued background swell should persist through the weekend and into next week out of the south-southeast. A strong storm is expected to push under Tasmania into the Tasman Sea over the next few days, which should generate a significant swell if the models are correct. Of course, Maui is heavily shadowed from this swell direction, but we may actually see some of this action. Stay tuned for details as it develops.

Pacific Peak Swell Period
Although some of our north shores may pick up a super-tiny and short-period northwest swell over the next few days, we are watching the development of the first swell of the upcoming season. Low pressure is deepening as it approaches the international dateline. The models are forecasting a fairly decent fetch developing with a nice shot of northwest swell aimed well toward Hawai`i. Current forecasts show this system occluding which may result in a longer episode. If all goes well, this energy should reach Hawai`i overnight Saturday into Sunday peaking around moderate well-overhead levels. Keep those fingers crossed! There is a little more activity modeled later in the period, but we’ll have to wait to see how it all plays out. Finally… some real surf!

Pray for surf…

Wind and Tide Information

Maui Tide Report for September 15th, 2010
The Maui Wind Report for today is: Upper-end light to moderate tradewinds are expected to continue out of the east today reaching 12-18 mph with stronger gusts likely in some areas. This pattern should hold through the next several days, at least until Saturday.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: A single low tide at Kahului was 0.4 foot at 12:32am late last night, rising to a high of 2.1 foot at 10:20am later in the morning hours, will then fade through the rest of the day to a low of 0.5 foot at 2:33am tomorrow morning.

Generate a daily, weekly, or monthly tide report for Kahului, Hana, Lahaina, Makena or Ma`alaea.

Maui Weather

The mostly dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week but a more typical pattern with windward showers is expected to return later Saturday and into the following week. Light to moderate tradewinds will continue today and little rainfall is expected over Maui. Radar is indicating a lot of shower activity offshore around the island’s north shores but little, if any rainfall seems to be over land. A ridge of high pressure developing north of the state will probably keep the winds from increasing too much, but advisories may be needed in the channels over the next few days. Remnants from a front are expected to arrive around Sunday which may increase rainfall, but this activity will probably affect windward areas only. More details to come.

East Pacific Hurricane Outlook

There are no tropical storms current or developing in the tropical eastern North Pacific nor are any expected to form within the next 48 hours.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - September 15th, 2010