10-15 foot
4-6+ foot
1-3 foot
1-4 foot

The current northwest swell continues to gradually decline early this morning. The NOAA buoys located northwest of the state are measuring a swell height of around 7 feet with a wave period of 12 to 13 seconds, while the PacIOOS buoys near northern Kauai and Oahu continue to register a swell height of 8 to 9 feet with a wave period of 13 to 14 seconds. As a result, the High Surf Advisory has been extended until noon HST today for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, and Molokai, and for north facing shores of Oahu and Maui. The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for all Hawaiian waters this morning, since combined seas have dropped below the threshold of 10 feet.

Light trade winds will continue over the island chain today. A cold front advancing toward the region from the northwest will cause winds to veer out of the southeast from late tonight through Monday. As the front continues to approach the area, winds will become southerly near Kauai and Oahu, and remain southeasterly elsewhere from Monday night through Wednesday. Trade winds are expected to make a gradual return starting Thursday. Note that SCA conditions are not forecast through the middle of the new work week.

A small west-northwest swell and a small southeast swell will gradually diminish through tonight. A moderate northwest swell is forecast to arrive Tuesday and peak Wednesday, with a slow decline on Thursday. A smaller reinforcing northwest swell is expected heading into next weekend.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:26 am this morning and will set at 05:52 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 9 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 5:24 AM on Saturday, November 4th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 29th October 2017

Summary

A band of clouds with embedded showers associated with a dissipated frontal boundary that has stalled over the state will continue to impact the smaller northwest islands today. Another cold front is forecast to approach the state tonight through midweek from the northwest. Increasing moisture and southerly winds ahead of this front will translate to increasing rain chances once again, especially west of Maui County. The front will stall west of the state on Wednesday, then move off to the west as a ridge builds north of the islands through the second half of the week.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery showed a cloud band associated with a dissipated cold front that has stalled from northeast to southwest over the smaller northwest islands. The morning radar loop showed most of the showers embedded within this band impacting portions of Oahu and the surrounding waters. Peak rainfall accumulations from the state summary showed values just around and just over 2″ on the windward side of Oahu, upslope from Kailua (St. Stephens), over the past 12 hours. Elsewhere, minimal accumulations have been observed. This trend will likely persist through a good portion of the day today, then temporarily clear out as the moisture axis associated with this band of low clouds begins to lift northward tonight through Monday. Winds will remain light and begin to shift toward the southeast through this time.

Forecast guidance remains in good agreement for the upcoming week and shows the progressive pattern continuing across the northern Pacific. The GFS and ECMWF support a strong shortwave trough digging southeast across the central Pacific today through Monday, then cutting off into a broad upper low and stalling Tuesday through midweek northeast of Midway. The attendant cold front is forecast to stall northwest of the state by Wednesday. Increasing moisture and deep southerly flow will be expected across the state, which will translate to increasing rain chances. Model PWs will rise back to around the 2″ mark through this time, which is well above normal. The best source of deep tropical moisture pooling northward and synoptic scale lift will most likely setup across the northwest portion of the island chain. The latest forecast package reflects this and shows the highest rainfall chances across Kauai and Oahu through this extended period.

The front will move off to the west as high pressure builds north of the islands through the second half of the week. Breezy trades will become a possibility for next weekend.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HST TODAY. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze after midnight. Lows 60 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HST TODAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 81. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HST TODAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 at the shore to around 72 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze after midnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to 49 to 55 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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