10-20+ foot
4-6+ foot
2-4 foot
2-4+ foot

A large, long-period northwest swell continues across the Hawaiian waters early this morning. Recent observations suggest the swell height may be a couple of feet above guidance. As a result, a High Surf Warning remains in effect through this afternoon for most north and west facing shores of the islands from Kauai and Niihau to Maui. In addition, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for west facing shores of Maui and north facing shores of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory also remains posted for Hawaiian waters exposed to this swell due to elevated and hazardous seas. Winds are forecast to remain well below the SCA criteria this weekend. Light to locally moderate northeast winds are occurring over portions of the coastal waters in the vicinity of Kauai and Oahu this morning due to a slight tightening of the gradient behind a weak front that sagged down over the western end of the island chain overnight. The surface winds are expected to shift to a more typical trade wind direction, and weaken later today and tonight.

The large northwest swell will gradually subside from later today through Sunday. Therefore, the shorelines that are presently in the warning will likely be under a High Surf Advisory Saturday evening. The SCA will also likely be lowered for most, if not all, Hawaiian waters by this evening.

Besides the large northwest swell, a small west-northwest swell, as well as a small southeast swell, will gradually diminish this weekend. Looking ahead, a moderate northwest swell is forecast to arrive Tuesday, and peak Wednesday, with a slow decline on Thursday.

Another front will approach the islands from the northwest early next week. This feature will cause winds across most Hawaiian waters to shift out of the southeast from early Monday through Wednesday. Winds near Kauai, which will be closer to the front, may be southerly starting Monday night or Tuesday. Winds and seas will likely remain well below the SCA criteria from Monday through Wednesday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:26 am this morning and will set at 05:53 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 8 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 5:24 AM on Saturday, November 4th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 28th October 2017

Summary

The best rainfall chances are expected across Kauai and Oahu today due to a dissipating frontal boundary that has pushed south into the area and stalled. Light to moderate trades will fill in across the islands through the rest of the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to approach and stall to the northwest Sunday through midweek. Increasing moisture and southerly winds ahead of this front will translate to increasing rain chances once again.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery showed a cloud band, mostly low clouds, associated with a dissipating cold front that has moved into the area from the north this morning. The latest surface analysis and observations showed this boundary extending southwest to around Kauai from low pressure (1004 mb) centered just under a 1000 miles north-northeast of the state. An overnight ASCAT pass showed breezy trade winds that had filled in across the northwest Kauai waters following its passage. The state rainfall summary showed peak overnight rainfall accumulations over windward and mauka sections of Kauai up to around an inch.

Short-term guidance (today-Sunday) remains in good agreement and supports a narrow band of higher moisture associated with the dissipating front remaining over Kauai and Oahu. A combination of this moisture and a return of trades will support clouds and showers favoring windward locations. High-resolution model reflectivities support this and depict a narrow band of showers continuing to develop along this boundary as it stalls and diminishes. Slightly drier air and lighter winds are anticipated over the rest of the state, except over the Big Island where PWs will remain around normal.

The extended guidance remains in decent agreement for the upcoming week and shows the progressive pattern continuing across the Pacific. The GFS and ECMWF support a strong shortwave trough digging southeast across the central Pacific Monday, then cutting off into a broad upper low and stalling Tuesday through midweek northeast of Midway. The attendant cold front is forecast to stall northwest of the state by Wednesday. Increasing moisture and deep southerly flow will be expected across the state, which will translate to increasing rain chances. Model PWs will rise back to around the 2″ mark through this time, which is well above normal. The best source of deep tropical moisture pooling northward and synoptic scale lift will most likely setup across the northwest islands. The latest forecast package reflects this and shows the highest rainfall chances across Kauai and Oahu through this extended period. No significant changes are anticipated in the overnight package.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs 70 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs around 84 at the shore to around 74 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph early in the afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 68 at the shore to 52 to 58 upcountry. Light winds.

Haleakala Summit

Clear. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph early in the morning.

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