4-6+ foot
2-4+ foot
3-5+ foot
1-4 foot

Fresh to strong trades will persist through the weekend as high pressure passes north of the state. Strongest winds are expected over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Sunday. Winds are forecast to shift out of the southeast Sunday night through Monday, then out of the south by Monday night into Tuesday as a front approaches and moves into the area. The front will likely bring an active weather pattern across the local waters Monday through Wednesday with heavy showers and chance of thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday night.

Surf along south facing shores will gradually ease through early next week as the south swell declines. The latest guidance supports mainly background sources through the upcoming week, which will support small surf each day beginning around Tuesday.

Surf along north facing shores will be on the rise tonight as a new north-northwest swell quickly fills in and peaks Sunday morning near advisory levels. A similarly-sized reinforcing northwest swell will arrive on Tuesday and may produce advisory level surf late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.56 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.96 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.59 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.14 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:25 am this morning and will set at 05:53 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 4:42 PM on Wednesday, October 31st.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 27th October 2018

Summary

High pressure passing north of the islands will maintain moderate trade winds through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. An upper level trough approaching the state early next week, will bring a moist and unstable airmass to the island chain, with the potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. Somewhat unsettled weather may continue for the end of next week as deep moisture lingers over the island chain, with the trade winds slowly returning.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening front remains nearly stationary around 150 miles north of Kauai, while a 1023 mb high is centered around 825 miles north of Honolulu. Meanwhile to the south of the state, convection continues to flare within an active intertropical convergence zone. The gradient in between these features is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies over Maui County and the Big Island, with mostly cloudy conditions over Kauai and windward sections of Oahu. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas with coverage the highest over Kauai. Main forecast concern this morning revolves around the potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms during the early to middle part of next week.

Today through Sunday night, High pressure will shift steadily eastward between 30N and 35N through the weekend, while the front north of the state slowly dissipates. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected today, with the trades easing slightly and becoming more easterly tonight and Sunday. Winds are then expected to shift around to the east-southeast at moderate speeds Sunday night.

A band of clouds and showers will continue to push westward through Kauai during the early morning hours, keeping windward areas showery here. A drier airmass has already overspread Oahu eastward to the Big Island, and this will overspread Kauai later this morning. This drier airmass will lead to a reduction in shower coverage and limit showers to primarily windward and mauka locales. Another band of enhanced moisture is then forecast to move through the island chain from east to west tonight into Sunday morning, bringing more showery weather to windward areas, with some showers reaching leeward areas from time to time as well. Drier conditions should then overspread the state Sunday afternoon through Sunday night with shower coverage decreasing again. Showers are expected to be limited primarily to windward areas Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, with some shower activity possibly moving into southeast facing sections of Kauai towards daybreak Monday as the trades tip more east-southeasterly.

Monday through Wednesday, The large scale synoptic weather pattern becomes more interesting next week, as both the GFS and ECMWF show an upper trough digging southward to the west of the state and tapping into deep tropical moisture from within the intertropical convergence zone. Both models show an area of low pressure developing southwest of the islands Monday and Monday night, with the GFS then lifting the low northeastward across the western or central islands Tuesday and Tuesday night. The ECMWF on the otherhand never lifts the low northwestward over the island chain, and instead keeps it off to the southwest of the state. Despite the differences in the solutions, both models show a tap into the deep tropics, and bring precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.5 inches northward across the island chain. As a result, the forecast will reflect increasing rain chances beginning on Monday across the western islands, with the most probable time frame for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms appearing to be from Monday night through Tuesday night. Additionally, if the GFS solution ends up panning out, some strong southerly winds may move over portions of the island chain as the low pulls northward across the state. Given the persistence of the GFS solution showing a low moving northward in the vicinity of Oahu and Kauai, we will need monitor this closely over the next few days.

Wednesday night through next Friday, High pressure is forecast to build to the north of the islands for the end of next week, and this should result in a gradual transition back into a light to moderate trade wind regime by the end of the upcoming work week. Both models show a lingering plume of deep tropical moisture over the state however, so this will likely keep conditions somewhat unsettled. With the deep moisture lingering over the area along with fairly light wind fields prior to the trades returning, showers will likely favor areas near the coast at night and over the interior and mountain regions during the afternoon and evening hours through the period. Given the differences in where this plume of deeper moisture is forecast to reside, will need to keep rain chances in the forecast statewide until details become more clear.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 76 at the shore to around 57 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 at the shore to 58 to 63 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.