10-15+ foot
5-8+ foot
3-5 foot
2-4+ foot

A front near the northern tip of the Big Island this morning will be moving slowly east through tonight. It is slated to be east of the Big Island by Thursday morning. The front is then expected to stall and weaken to a trough over the eastern offshore waters during the second half of the week.

A large north-northwest swell, generated by a strong low pressure system 600 nm north of Kauai a couple of days ago, is spreading across the island waters this morning. This swell is larger than expected, prompting a high surf warning for the north and west facing shores of a few islands, and a high surf advisory for the west facing shores of Oahu. The warning and advisory are in effect until 6 pm HST this evening. Advisory level surf will likely continue for the same shorelines into tonight, so the High Surf Warning will need to be transitioned over to an advisory later today, with the advisory possibly running right through the night. Near-shore buoys, Hanalei and Waimea, including Buoy 51101, located 185 nm northwest of Kauai are reporting swell heights of 12 to 14 feet the past couple of hours. Therefore, we expect elevated, dangerous surf for today for our north and west facing shores.

The large swell has also resulted in a small craft advisory (SCA) for most of the marine zones. The SCA is good through 6 AM HST Thursday, with the likelihood of an extension, as the next large northwest swell (from 320 degrees) starts to impact the north and west facing shores of most islands Thursday night. This swell generated by former Typhoon Lan in the far northwest Pacific several days ago, will bring another round of warning-level surf to the north and west facing shores of most islands. This swell is slated to peak Friday. A smaller moderate size northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday of next week.

The east facing shores will get some wrap from the large northwest swells. Otherwise, surf will be small during this period due to the light trades.

The south facing shores will be getting some small pulses mainly from the southeast through Friday. After that, the surf will trend smaller.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:24 am this morning and will set at 05:54 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 5:24 AM on Saturday, November 4th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Wednesday, 25th October 2017

Summary

A stationary front just to the west of Big Island will shift east of the island chain late today or tonight. Deep moisture associated with the front will linger over or near the Big Island through Thursday, keeping shower chances highest over the eastern end of the State. Cooler and drier conditions with north winds will prevail across Kauai and Oahu through the rest of the work week, and will slowly track into Maui County later today or tonight. Weaker winds, more humid weather, and increasing shower chances may affect the island chain this weekend into early next week.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a strong 1000 mb low is centered around 725 miles north of Kauai, with a trailing cold front extending southward through the Alenuihaha Channel between Maui and the Big Island, where it remains nearly stationary. Additionally, a weak low is evident in satellite imagery around 275 miles due south of the Big Island. Meanwhile, a 1021 mb high is centered around 1700 miles west-northwest of Kauai, with ridging nosing into the western end of the island chain. Light northerly winds remain in place over the smaller islands, with light southerly winds prevailing across the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions from Oahu eastward to the Big Island, with generally partly cloudy conditions across Kauai. Radar imagery continues to show scattered light showers streaming northward across Maui County and the Big Island. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances over the next couple days as the front slowly pulls away from the State.

Today through Thursday night, Model solutions are in fairly good agreement showing the front between Maui and the Big Island shifting slowly eastward across the Big Island later today and tonight as the upper level trough axis currently just west of the State, shifts eastward. At the same time, the weak low due south of the Big Island will lift steadily northward today, with the low merging with the weak front or frontal remnants just east of the Big Island late tonight through Thursday night.

Light to moderate northerly winds are expected across the smaller islands through the period, while light southerlies over the Big Island shift around to the north late today and tonight as the front moves east of the island chain.

Scattered showers will continue to stream northward across Maui County and the Big Island today, with the showers driven by isentropic ascent over Maui County and the combination of large scale ascent and deep tropical moisture over the Big Island. Some heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms can’t be ruled out over the Big Island today, but the threat for flash flooding has diminished considerably. Therefore the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. The deeper moisture and best forcing for ascent will shift east of the Big Island tonight through Thursday night, leading to a decrease in shower coverage across Maui County and the Big Island, with the shower focus shifting into mainly windward areas. Across Oahu and Kauai, a drier northerly flow should keep showers light and confined to mainly windward (north facing slope) areas through the period.

Friday through next Tuesday, Details become much less clear in the extended portion of the forecast with notable differences between the reliable model guidance along with poor run to run continuity. Generally, the models suggest that a lingering trough of low pressure and associated deep moisture east of the Big Island, will begin to shift westward and back across the island chain over the weekend into early next week. For now will take a blended forecast approach, which would suggest we would see shower coverage increasing from east to west across the islands over the weekend into early next week. Additionally, we should see an increase in humidity as winds once again shift around to the southeast and south as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 64 to 78. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 62 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 at the shore to 55 to 61 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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