5-7 foot
3-4 foot
Flat
4-5 foot

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through Friday due to strong- to gale-force trade winds and rough seas. Latest buoy observations around the islands reflect this and are holding within the 8 to 11 ft range. Heights within the 12 to 15 ft range are likely occurring over the windier locations, especially across the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island where the strongest winds are. Satellite altimetry data within the past 12 hrs even showed wave heights up to 14 ft west of Kauai. Small craft advisory headlines will remain likely through Friday over most waters. Gale conditions will likely hold over the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels through the day Thursday.

The latest guidance lines up well with the current pattern and depicts a weakness within the ridge axis developing north of the islands over the upcoming weekend. This weakness will be in response to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest and a weak surface trough approaching from the east. Trade winds are forecast to respond and gradually trend down late Saturday through Sunday. Seas will drop below advisory-levels (10 ft) through this time.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the rest of the week due to strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. The high surf advisory for east facing shores will hold through Wednesday and likely need to be extended through Thursday. A downward trend is expected over the upcoming weekend due to the aforementioned weakness developing within the ridge and a weak trough moving into the area from the east.

Surf along south facing shores will continue to trend down through Thursday as the south swell that peaked Monday eases. Mostly shorter- period and small southeast energy will be expected Wednesday through Friday. An upward trend is expected once again over the upcoming weekend due to the ongoing active pattern over the southern Pacific within Hawaii’s swell window. Altimetry and ASCAT data showed a gale- to storm-force low passing quickly from west to east south of New Zealand this past weekend with seas peaking southeast of New Zealand around 40 ft on Sunday. WAVEWATCH III and ECMWF-Wave solutions reflect this and show long-period energy arriving locally by Saturday, peaking Sunday, then slowly trending down early next week out of 190-200 deg.

Mainly trade wind energy wrapping into the typical locations are expected for surf along north facing shores into Thursday. A long- period north-northwest (340 deg) swell associated with a storm- force low passing from west to east across the far northern Pacific is expected to fill in and peak late Thursday through Friday before slowly easing over the upcoming weekend. Surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels through the peak.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.2 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 2.2 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:21 am this morning and will set at 05:59 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 28 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 2:55 AM on Thursday, September 28th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Wednesday, 18th October 2017

Summary

High pressure north of Hawaii will keep a windy trade wind pattern in place through the rest of the work week, with the trades trending down slightly Friday and weakening further over the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the period, but showers will reach leeward areas from time to time as well due to the strength of the trades.

Detailed Discussion

Windy conditions will continue to be the main weather player across the state over the rest of the work week. High pressure around 1030-1034 mb expected to remain to the north of the state will continue to result in a pressure gradient supportive of strong winds, locally up to Wind Advisory conditions with gusts over 50 mph possible in the windiest areas around Maui County and the Big Island through late Thursday. Along with the winds, pockets of showers riding along in the trades will continue to pass over the state. The showers will focus over windward areas, but occasionally carry to leeward areas due to the strong winds. Rain totals will remain generally on the light side for both windward and leeward areas.

The pattern is expected to shift as we go into the weekend. The surface ridge to the north shifts eastward and is replaced by a trough, which carves out from the mid latitude westerlies somewhere to the north or northwest of the state by Sunday. Trades become weak and begin to shift more southeasterly by Sunday and more southerly on Monday. Most areas should be fairly dry Saturday, but tropical moisture is expected to come up from the southeast and spread over the state on Sunday (Big Island) and Sunday night (smaller islands). The additional moisture will provide more shower activity around the state, particularly as sea breezes direct the showers onto the islands Sunday and Monday afternoons. In addition, an upper trough will pass just north of Hawaii Monday through Tuesday night resulting in some possibly heavier showers around the state during that time period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 78. Northeast winds around 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY. Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 73 at the shore to 58 to 63 upcountry. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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