2-5+ foot
2-5 foot
1-4 foot
4-6+ foot

Strong to gale-force east-northeasterly trade winds and associated short-period rough seas will dominate the marine forecast for the second half of the weekend and most of next week as strong high pressure will prevail north of the area.

The expectation is that winds will increase through Saturday evening, and then remain elevated through at least mid-week as high pressure prevails to the north of the islands. Combined seas at PacIOOS buoys over windward waters have diminished from their rapid spike on Friday, and are running between 7 and 10 feet this morning. So while winds and seas may be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria today in some of the zones currently covered by the SCA, increasing winds and seas are expected as early as tonight. Open-ocean winds are expected to be build to near 25 kt tomorrow and continue through Thursday. Where the terrain most accelerates the wind (Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels), a Gale Watch has been issued in anticipation of gale force winds, potentially beginning as early tomorrow.

A High Surf Advisory is posted for east facing shores, where rough and elevated short-period surf is expected through at least Wednesday. A long-period south swell arriving this weekend will likely result in high surf along south facing shores by late Sunday, continuing into Monday before gradually diminishing by mid-week. A small long-period north-northwest swell is expected tomorrow and Monday (~3 ft), with the potential for a slightly larger (~5 ft) north-northwest swell around Friday. Another south swell is possible next weekend.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model


Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.5 foot at 4:12 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 11:26 AM shortly before noon, then dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 6:20 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 11:46 PM shortly before midnight

The sunrise was at 06:20 am this morning and will set at 06:02 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 24 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 7:12 PM on Thursday, October 19th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Trades will become breezy later today, then locally windy by Sunday through much of next week as an area of strong high pressure remains to the north of the state. Low clouds and showers carried by the winds will affect windward areas, and may reach the lee areas of the smaller islands under the increasing trades.

Much calmer weather presents across the state early this morning, though there are still enhanced showers in the island vicinity as the airmass is still unstable and moist. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings both continue to depict an unstable airmass, with a slight increase in moisture compared to yesterday’s afternoon. This is not surprising as more low clouds are present in the island vicinity at this time. Trade winds will be increasing across the islands today, as the persistent surface trough in the island vicinity finally shifts west. With the current atmospheric conditions, expect enhanced showers to continue to affect the islands today. Much of these showers will be focused along windward areas, though winds will be strong enough to carry some showers to the lee areas of the smaller islands as well. There may still be enough atmospheric instability for deeper convection to develop over the lee areas of the Big Island this afternoon and early evening, though believe the potential for thunderstorm is low enough such that shall leave the mention of thunderstorm from this forecast package.

Winds will become locally windy with gusty conditions by Sunday through the much of next week as the current strong high far north-northeast will weaken somewhat but drop south. This will keep tight pressure gradient across the area. Moreover, winds for some areas may reach advisory thresholds Sunday through Thursday. A mid-level high will move from the west to near the state in the next few days. This will result in the airmass in the island vicinity slowly becoming more stable. There will still be lingering moisture in the area Sunday and Monday, thus wet trade wind weather is expected for those days. Drier trade wind weather is expected for rest of next week, as the latest forecast solutions still indicate drier airmass will spread to the area from the northeast. Hence, rather windy trade wind weather is to prevail for much of next week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 72 to 79. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY. Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 69 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east 15 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 74 at the shore to 57 to 64 upcountry. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - October 14, 2017