10-15 foot
5-10 foot
0-2 foot
2-4+ foot

The current north-northwest swell has subsided overnight according to buoy reports across the state. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. This north-northwest swell will continue to gradually subside through Sunday night.

Another larger north-northwest swell arriving Monday is expected to produce very large surf along most north and west facing shores of the island chain. As a result, a High Surf Warning will likely be required from Monday into Tuesday. This swell will gradually subside on Wednesday before the next very large north-northwest swell arrives late Wednesday night, and continues from Thursday into Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon due to locally strong trades across the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. A scatterometer pass across the islands Friday evening confirmed that the trade winds remain strong across these waters. This SCA may need to be extended into Saturday evening for some waters, such as the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and Maalaea Bay. However, trade wind speeds are expected to weaken by Sunday as the ridge north of the islands moves slowly south. Therefore, we may be able to drop the SCA for all marine zones on Sunday. Expect the SCA to be issued for many areas early next week due to a combination of locally strong northeasterly trade winds associated with the frontal band, as well as combined seas of 10 feet or greater due to the large north-northwest swell spreading across the area.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.2 foot at 6:15 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 10:49 PM late this evening, then rising to a of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:30 am this morning and will set at 05:48 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 7:52 PM on Monday, November 7th.

Maui Weather

Wind: n/a at 0 mph
current observations as of 1am December 17th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday

An east to west oriented surface ridge north of the area will maintain trade winds across the island chain through this weekend. A new surface high building far northwest of the area will move southeast and push a band of low clouds and showers associated with a surface front over the smaller islands Monday and Monday night. This front is expected to dissipate near the Big Island by late Tuesday. Another front may approach Kauai late next week.

The tight pressure gradient south of an east to west oriented surface ridge located about 500 miles north of Lihue is maintaining breezy trade winds over the islands early this morning. Aloft, middle to upper tropospheric ridging northwest of the islands is also providing stable atmospheric conditions across the region. The low-level subsidence inversion is around 6 thousand feet at Lihue, and near 8 thousand feet at Hilo this morning according to the soundings. Precipitable Water (PW) values are 0.9 to 1.1 inches across most of the state based on the soundings and satellite derived measurements of PW.

Infrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show scattered to broken low clouds with embedded scattered showers across most of the windward Hawaiian waters. Most of the trade showers are affecting windward facing slopes of the individual islands, but the robust low level trade wind flow is transporting a few brief showers over to leeward sections of some of the smaller islands.

The forecast models indicate an upper level trough may deepen southeast of the Big Island later today. If so, the pressure gradient between this trough and the middle tropospheric ridge northwest of the area might cause a local acceleration of wind speeds over the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Based on the latest guidance, the winds are expected to remain below the wind advisory criteria. We will monitor the wind observations from the summits today in case the speeds are stronger than expected.

The surface ridge north of the islands is expected to weaken and shift southward later this weekend. This will result in a slight decrease in trade wind speeds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Also, with stable atmospheric conditions prevailing due to the ridging aloft northwest of the area, rainfall totals are forecast to remain relatively light across most areas from later today through Sunday night.

The latest guidance continues to show a new surface high will build northwest of the area late this weekend, and move southeast. This surface high will push a band of low clouds and showers associated with a front toward the islands late Sunday night. The band is forecast to weaken as it moves down across the smaller islands from Monday through Monday night. Most of the low clouds and showers associated with this frontal boundary will be along windward and mauka areas of the islands, but strengthening northeasterly trades along and immediately behind the band may carry some light showers over to leeward sections of some of the islands. Excessive rainfall is not expected with this band, since stable atmospheric conditions will prevail early next week. The band of low clouds and showers associated with the remnant front will eventually dissipate near the Big Island by late Tuesday.

The forecast models indicate another front may approach Kauai late next week. Ahead of this front, wind speeds are forecast to weaken across most of the state starting Wednesday. It appears the front may reach Kauai Thursday or Thursday night. This front may stall near Kauai and eventually dissipate based on the latest output from the GFS model. The most recent run of the ECMWF model suggests the front may reach Kauai, then push south to Oahu before stalling and dissipating. We will continue to monitor future output from these global models to determine the most likely movement of this front.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Clear and breezy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Windy. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph shifting to the east 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph after midnight.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph until early morning. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Clear. Lows around 67 at the shore to 52 to 57 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - November 5th, 2016