3-5 foot
1-3 foot
1-3 foot
2-4 foot

The trade winds have built to locally strong, to around 25 knots, thereby prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. This condition will likely persist until around Monday night, when the trades are expected to ease to below SCA criteria. With the windier trades, comes the choppier waters and rougher surf especially along the east facing shores. In the short term, models are indicating the trades will strengthen area-wide, reaching 30 knots in the windier waters by tonight and continuing into Sunday.

The new northwest swell has reached the northern shores of Kauai and Oahu. Both the Hanalei and Waimea buoys are reporting a 3 foot swell this hour with a 15 to 16 seconds period. The deep ocean buoy 51001, located some 180 nm northwest of Kauai, got up as high as 5 feet a couple of hours ago and appears to be on its way down. Wave Watch model has this swell peaking today at 4 feet around Kauai and Oahu before tailing off gradually through Monday.

A moderate size northeast swell from 030 degrees and a period of 13 to 14 seconds, is slated to reach our east facing shores Sunday. Combined with the trade wind swell, surf will approach advisory levels Monday through Tuesday. This swell is being generated by an area of tight pressure gradient between an area of low pressure located off the southern California coast and a broad high pressure area centered to the northwest.

The far South Pacific remains relatively active with intense low pressure systems. Wave Watch is indicating small long period swell of 15 seconds rolling in on Sunday, from 190 degrees. Then, a 2 foot swell with a 15 to 17 second period, follows in between Monday night and Wednesday. This swell will linger through Thursday before subsiding.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.7 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:29 am this morning and will set at 05:49 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 15 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 8:38 PM on Friday, November 10th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

75°/76°
Wind: N at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 3pm November 20th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 4th November 2017

Summary

Locally breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend. Windward showers will increase tonight, before a drier and cooler air mass moves into the state from the northeast on Sunday. A quiet weather pattern is expected next week, with moderate trade winds delivering passing showers to windward areas.

Detailed Discussion

Quiet and dry weather prevails across the state on this early Saturday morning. Radar shows only widely scattered light showers mainly over the windward waters and some windward land areas, and gauges report only isolated very light rainfall amounts over windward areas during the last several hours. Surface analysis depicts high pressure far north of the state, with a dissipating front well to our northwest. Trade winds have resumed across the islands to the south of the high. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows ridging over and north of the state. The 12Z soundings indicate a stable airmass in place, with the inversion around 6000 feet at both Lihue and Hilo. PW values remain above normal however, ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches.

Trade winds will continue to strengthen during the weekend as high pressure far to our north builds southward, and the old front to our west completely dissipates. There will be enough low level moisture lingering around, especially tonight, to produce a somewhat showery trade wind pattern mainly for windward areas. Shower activity is expected to decrease sharply by midday Sunday as a much drier airmass moves into the state from the northeast, with forecasted PW values dropping below one inch. This airmass will be only slightly cooler at the surface, but dewpoints are expected to drop down into the lower to mid 60s. These lower dewpoints combined with breezy and dry trades will make for pleasant weather conditions on Sunday into Monday.

Little change is expected through the middle of next week, with trade winds weakening back to moderate levels, while a rather dry and stable airmass remains in place. The last couple of GFS runs show a possible transition to a seabreeze pattern over the western part of the state Monday and Tuesday as background winds veer around a bit more to the ESE, but even if this does occur would expect just clouds and a few showers over leeward/interior areas. The ECMWF maintains more of a defined trade wind pattern during this time, and will be favored for now. At this point, we anticipate typical trade wind weather to continue, with passing showers windward and mauka, and mainly dry conditions leeward.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 77 at the shore to around 58 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 at the shore to 59 to 64 upcountry. North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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