1-4 foot
0-3 foot
0-3 foot
1-3 foot

High pressure northeast of Hawaii will continue to drive moderate to breezy trades through the weekend, then weaken slightly early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typical windier coastal zones around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday. Winds in these areas should fall below SCA criteria by early next week.

An upper level low centered about 200 miles northeast of Hilo is causing scattered showers across the coastal waters and isolated thunderstorms across the windward waters of the Big Island this morning. As the upper low tracks westward, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly across the eastern coastal zones through Sunday morning. The upper level low is then forecasted to weaken and move north Sunday into Monday.

No major swells are expected through the next week. The current northwest swell will gradually fade today. Another small west- northwest swell will arrive Sunday and continue into the first half of next week followed by another small reinforcement during the second half of the week. Small background south swells will continue through next week. Breezy trade winds will produce small to moderate surf along east facing shores into early next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.60 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.30 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.23 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:28 am this morning and will set at 05:49 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 25 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 4:02 PM on Wednesday, November 7th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 5pm January 15th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 3rd November 2018

Summary

A high pressure system far to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands supports moderate to breezy trade winds through Monday. An upper level low moving over the eastern half of the state will continue to produce frequent rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Big Island and portions of Maui County through Sunday. Enhanced showers from this upper low will drift into the windward and mountain slopes of each island through Tuesday with more scattered showers across leeward sections. Drier weather trends return as trade winds diminish from Tuesday night onward as a cold front moves into the region.

Detailed Discussion

A 1032 MB high pressure center remains anchored far to the northeast of the state this morning. A ridge extending westward from this high will support moderate to breezy trade winds across the islands through Monday. Doppler radar over the Big Island continues to show frequent shower activity and thunderstorms along the eastern half of the island. Rain gauges near Pahoa have reported between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours.

An upper level low cut off from the mid latitude jet stream flow has set up just northeast of the Big Island and Maui this morning. Cold air aloft associated with the core of this low will blanket the eastern half of the state in an unstable air mass producing frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will diminish across the state by Sunday night as the low weakens and begins to drift northward.

Rainfall will spread westward to the smaller islands as unstable shower bands will develop, under the influence of this upper level low, and drift westward with the trade wind flow. Expect numerous showers along the windward and mountain slopes of the smaller islands through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are also expected to develop over leeward areas.

Temperatures over the Big Island summits will remain below freezing through the weekend, and convective showers will bring around 3 inches of snowfall to the highest elevations of Maunakea and Maunaloa. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow has been issued for the highest summits of the Big Island through Sunday morning.

The high pressure ridge north of the islands will weaken on Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves into the Central Pacific basin. An upper level mid latitude short wave trough will kick the cut off low northward away from the Hawaiian Islands during the same time period. The wind flow will transition to a more light and variable pattern late Tuesday into Wednesday with land breezes dominating the wind flow at night and onshore sea breezes forecast each day through Friday. Southeasterly flow aloft will keep most of the islands in a rain shadow, limiting precipitation chances for the latter half of next week.

Significant differences remain between the American (GFS) model and the European (ECMWF) model with the track of the approaching cold front next weekend. The most striking difference between each of these models has to do with the strength of the high pressure center northwest of the cold front. By Saturday, the GFS model maintains a wetter solution as a 1031 MB surface high moving into the Central Pacific will have strong enough low level steering flow to push the shallow cold front west to east across the island chain through next weekend. The ECMWF model however shows a drier solution as an elongated ridge lingers north of the state during the same time period. The ECMWF solution is drier because the strength and orientation of this ridge will not support the eastward movement of this shallow cold front through the islands. This model solution supports a stalling the frontal band several hundred miles north and east of the state.

The long range precipitation forecast in this mornings weather grid package for next weekend represents a blend between these two solutions with a broad brush approach to higher rainfall chances across the western half of the state. Our confidence in the rainfall forecast for next weekend will remain on the low side until we see these global weather models converge on a more similar solution. Stay tuned for updates as this long range forecast evolves over time.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 60 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Cloudy with frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 72 at the shore to around 53 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 69 at the shore to 54 to 59 upcountry. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.