4-7 foot
2-5 foot
0-3 foot
4-6 foot

The current north swell continues to fade this early Saturday morning, enough to cancel the high surf advisory for the north facing shores of the smaller islands. A High Surf Warning remains in place for the north facing shores of the Big Island to until 10 am HST this morning. It is likely the warning will be downgraded to an advisory after 10 am HST. We will continue to closely monitor the near shore buoys as the day progresses, but it appears the swell is now declining close to Wave Watch model forecast.

Looking for swells from the north and northwest for the next few days, it looks like a busy period coming up, through Thursday of next week. These swells will border close to or at advisory level surf for the north facing shores for most, if not all of the islands. The time line has fore- runners from a advisory level size swell (8 feet max) to begin rolling in tonight. It will peak Sunday night. A north northwest swell, max of 7 feet and a longer period to 20 seconds, comes in on Tuesday with near advisory level surf for the north facing shores. This swell will peak Tuesday night. A similar size swell follows in on Thursday. We will be monitoring the situation closely in the coming days for the outlook will likely change.

A series of high pressure systems passing north of the islands has and will continue to generate strong and gusty trade winds. This will lead to in an elevated trade wind swell and dangerous seas conditions through early next week. A high surf advisory is in effect for the east facing shores through Sunday afternoon, which will likely be extended through Monday. Also, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the Hawaiian waters through Sunday afternoon. A Gale Watch, becomes effective at 6 pm HST this evening, lasting through Sunday afternoon for Maalea Bay and the Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels. This is in response to another boost in the relatively strong and gusty trades, caused by another strong high pressure cell settling north of the main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. Somewhat lighter trades are expected after Monday night as the high weakens.

A small background south swell is expected during the forecast period.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 0.9 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:42 am this morning and will set at 05:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 6 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 3:48 PM on Sunday, December 3rd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 1pm September 18th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 25th November 2017

Summary

High pressure north of the State will keep strong trades over the islands through this weekend and into early next week. Passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a few stray showers expected to reach leeward areas of the smaller islands from time to time. A wet trade wind weather pattern is expected to develop on Sunday and continue through much of next week as deep tropical moisture spreads into the area from the southeast. The wettest conditions are expected over the eastern end of the island chain.

Detailed Discussion

A 1036 mb high far north northwest of the main Hawaiian islands continues to drive strong trade winds across local waters this morning. Strong inversions aloft and only an inch of PW put a cap on deep cloud development statewide tonight, a trend that has lasted over the past few days. Radar shows scattered to numerous moderate showers across the area, mainly across windward portions of the islands and within the channels. However, these showers are moving so quickly within the strong trades that they don’t linger over a single area long enough to produce much rainfall. Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds across windward slopes and across windward waters. Skies across leeward waters are generally clearer. Broken high clouds are moving southwest to northeast across the eastern third of the main island chain.

Models show the high far to our north northwest will move generally east southeastward through the weekend, keeping our local pressure gradient steep enough to support strong trade winds through the weekend. Wind Advisories remain in effect for Lana`i and for areas lee of the Kohala mountains on the Big Island through Sunday, but may need to be expanded as conditions warrant. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Our airmass will gradually moisten over the weekend, with deep moisture expected to reach the Big Island on Sunday. Trade showers will persist through the period, but may become more widespread and heavier over the Big Island beginning Sunday afternoon. Snowfall may occur at the Big Island Summits beginning Sunday afternoon. However, we will not issue a Winter Storm Watch with the early morning package given the rather low forecast snow accumulations derived from our QPF tool using an 8:1 snow-to- rainfall ratio through Sunday night. Global ECMWF shows higher QPF at the Big Island summits beginning early Monday morning, so the need for a Winter Storm Watch will be reassessed during the day today.

We expect an overall wetter trade wind pattern from Sunday through midweek. For the Big Island, the source will be the deep moisture mentioned before. For the smaller islands, the source will be an old frontal boundary expected to sag southward across the state Sunday night through early next week.

Models diverge sharply beyond day five. Global ECMWF shows the development of a surface low southwest of the main islands next Thursday, then moves this low northward just west of Kauai next Friday and Saturday. In contrast, GFS develops a similar low next Sunday, several days after ECMWF, then moves it westward away from the islands. The ECMWF solution involves winds veering to southerlies with very wet weather late next week, while the GFS solution keeps easterly trades, strengthens them to gale strength almost everywhere within our grid domain, but also with wet weather. Our forecast beyond day five will take a middle road, with slightly veering trades forecast Thursday followed by backing and strengthening trades Friday and Saturday. Rainfall will likely increase as showers become numerous statewide by next weekend no matter which model verifies.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Windy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 62 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs around 75 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 at the shore to 52 to 57 upcountry. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 42 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Photo of the Day