6-10 foot
4-6 foot
0-2 foot
4-6 foot


Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily trend down through the remainder of the weekend and should remain below advisory-levels each day through the week. Small northwest swells are expected Tuesday through Wednesday and Friday through Saturday. Recent activity across the Tasman Sea may result in a slight increase in surf along the southern shores by the mid-week period due to a small south-southwest swell. Another gale is forecast to setup southeast of New Zealand through the early portion of the upcoming week, which could translate to another small southerly source by the end of next weekend.

Advisory-level conditions due to a combination of hazardous winds and seas are expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure builds north of the region in the wake of an old frontal boundary currently located over portions of the windward waters. The strongest winds will remain over the typically windier channel waters each day. Winds will near gale levels over these windier areas later in the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds north of the region in the wake of another front passing well north of the state. The latest model guidance remains in decent agreement over the next several days and depicts the subtropical ridge axis becoming oriented from east to west over the eastern Pacific. A large batch of strong easterlies extending from the west coast to the islands by mid week will be expected. A combination of the locally generated seas and trade wind swell will likely translate to advisory-level surf along east facing shores as early as Tuesday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model


Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.4 foot at 6:37 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 2:21 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.0 foot at 5:29 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 11:31 PM shortly before midnight

The sunrise was at 06:38 am this morning and will set at 05:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 20 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 8:34 AM on Monday, November 21st.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 9am December 12th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday

High pressure north of the state will keep a moderate to breezy trade wind flow in place through early next week. The trades will strengthen Tuesday through late next week, with breezy to windy conditions expected across the Aloha state. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the period, with showers occasionally reaching leeward locales due to the strength of the trades.

Currently at the surace, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1000 miles north of Kauai, and is driving the breezy trade winds across the area early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mixture of low and high clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with some of the showers reaching leeward areas of the smaller islands as well. Main short term concern for the next 24 hours revolves around rain chances.

Today and tonight, High pressure to the north of the islands will shift steadily off to the southeast through the period, keeping a breezy trade wind flow in place across the area. A few of the typically windier areas may flirt with advisory level winds, but duration and coverage is not expected to be sufficient to warrant a Wind Advisory. As for sensible weather details, a band of low clouds and showers associated with an old front will push slowly southward through the islands, bringing some unsettled weather at times through tonight, particularly in windward and mauka areas. The band of clouds and showers is expected to focus mainly over Kauai and Oahu this morning, before expanding into Maui County and the Big Island this afternoon. The band will then get hung up across the entire island chain tonight. Given the strength of the trades, some of the shower activity will reach leeward areas of the smaller islands from time to time as well. MIMIC total precipitable water (PW) imagery doesn’t show an abundance of moisture with the band of clouds and showers, with PW values generally around 1.2 or 1.3 inches, which agrees well with the 12z soundings from PHLI and PHTO which came in at 1.25 and 1.20 inches respectively. In addition, with the lack of any significant mid- level troughing to elevate inversion heights across the area, the airmass should remain relatively stable, keeping rainfall amounts generally on the light side.

Sunday through Monday night, High pressure off to the northeast of the islands will weaken Sunday through early next week, as another area of high pressure begins to build well to the north of the state. This will allow the trades to ease a bit, but they are expected to remain in the moderate to locally breezy range. As for sensible weather details, we should see a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern through the period. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with an occasional shower reaching leeward sections of the smaller islands, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.

Tuesday through next Friday, Strong high pressure will build north of the islands, ramping the trades up into the breezy to windy range across the Aloha state, which the models are in good agreement on. There are some significant differences between the medium range models with respect to sensible weather details during the middle to latter part of next week however. The 00Z GFS develops a closed upper low east of the International Date line, and brings a slug a deep moisture and the potential for some heavier rain to affect western portions of the state during the mid to late next week time frame. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF develops the closed upper low well to the west of the International Date Line, keeping the deeper moisture well off to the west of the islands. For now, will keep the forecast featuring slightly wetter than normal trade wind weather through the period. Showers are expected to favor windward and mauka areas, but given the strength of the trades, some of the shower activity will occasionally reach leeward areas of the smaller islands as well.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Occasional showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 73. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 55 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 at the shore to 54 to 59 upcountry. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - November 19th, 2016