Surprise. Yet another day of flat surf conditions here on Maui and around the Hawaiian islands. Although there is a little energy heading toward both our northwest and south facing shores, nothing significant is expected through the forecast period. A tiny northwest swell may appear Saturday morning into Sunday and a small to possibly moderate south-southeast swell may arrive Saturday or Sunday with only tiny background swell expected before. The only real source of surf today will be weak windswell out of the east at 1-4 foot, not quite enough to wrap to any other shores. North and northwest facing shores should be flat at only 0-2 foot and Upper West shores even closer to flat but also 0-2 foot. Tiny background swell along our south facing shores may reach into the 0-3 foot but should be expected to be flat.

Extended Surf Forecast

Pacific Peak Wave Height
Our south facing shores may be picking up a little bump out of the south-southwest but most breaks will stay flat, specifically those that are blocked by Kaho`olawe. This pattern should continue through the day Friday as well. A low pressure system developed south of French Polynesia early in the week that appeared to have occluded, or stopped its forward motion for almost 2 full days before tracking off to the east. A fetch was aimed toward Hawai`i out of the south-southeast that should result in a small to moderate swell arriving around Saturday or Sunday and should last a few days. Unfortunately, a zonal west to east pattern has set up in the South Pacific and there really are no swells aimed toward our shores. Tiny to occasionally small background swell may keep our summer shores from going completely flat, but there certainly isn’t anything to get excited over. The long-range models are hinting toward a low pushing into our swell window southeast of New Zealand around the middle of next week, but it is way to early to discuss.

Pacific Peak Swell Period
An area of low pressure formed near the dateline earlier in the week but aimed the majority of its swell toward the Aleutian Islands but a very minor fetch should have taken aim toward our islands. Around Wednesday the low developed further and a broader fetch was established which continues today and may continue through Saturday as the system tracks to the east. Although the winds are sub-gale, enough of a fetch should exist to provide Hawai`i with a small northwest swell arriving Saturday into Sunday, peaking at head-high or slightly larger wave heights. Tiny surf may stick around through Monday if we are lucky. Not much action is expected to follow through the forecast period, but there is still a little hope later in the model runs. Pray for surf!

Wind and Tide Information

Maui Tide Report for May 26th, 2010
The weakening tradewinds will drop to light levels today around 8-12 mph varying from east to east-southeast through the day. The winds may increase slightly through Friday and will begin to rebound back to moderate levels over the weekend. The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.3 foot at 12:53am shortly after midnight last night, dropping to a low of -0.6 foot at 7:25am this morning, rising again to a high of 2.7 foot at 2:56pm later in the afternoon hours before fading once again to a low of 0.8 foot at 9:33pm later this evening. Tonight will be a full moon.

Maui Weather

We should see developing sea breezes and afternoon clouds and showers this afternoon as the tradewinds back off in strength due to fading high pressure north and northwest of the state. The night and Friday morning should be rather clear despite a weak upper-level trough over part of the state. Wind near the summit of Haleakala are stronger out of the west-northwest but there have been no advisories posted. The trough and its associated cold front will drift toward the Gulf of Alaska over the next several days and won’t affect our weather that much. At this time, it looks like a more typical tradewind pattern should re-emerge around Tuesday of next week, although we may see another round of lighter winds later next week.

May 27th, 2010 Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - May 27th, 2010