Surf Outlook for Saturday, May 25th 2019

South Shores:
3 to 5 feet through Saturday afternoon, rising to 4 to 7 feet Saturday night
North Shores:
2 to 4 feet tonight, rising to 4 to 6 feet Saturday
West Shores:
2 to 4 feet through Saturday
East Shores:
2 to 4 feet tonight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Saturday

East trade winds are expected to surge tonight, bringing in moderate to fresh speeds across the state, with a bit more acceleration across through the typically windier waters around the Big Island and Maui County. A moderate to locally fresh east trade pattern is then expected to continue into next week.

A series of south-southwest swells will keep surf up along south facing shores well into next week. The current south-southwest swell will fade Saturday as forerunners from a larger south- southwest swell will fill in. Surf from this second swell is expected to peak around the 8-foot advisory level Sunday and Memorial Day. Surf should then stay in the shoulder to head high range into midweek along the south facing shores.

The north facing shores will see a bump in surf this weekend as a moderate, short period northwest swell continues to fill in and peak Saturday and hold Sunday. This will also put surf along north facing shores in the head high range over the weekend. This swell will gradually subside into midweek.

Along east facing shores, trade wind swell will pick up as the trades winds increase this weekend, but will remain below advisory levels.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:43 am this morning and will set at 07:02 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 22 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 10:02 AM on Monday, June 3rd.

Maui Weather

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 25th May 2019

Summary

Humid easterly trade winds will again give way to afternoon sea breezes in some leeward areas. Showers will favor windward slopes, though afternoon clouds and a few showers are expected over leeward terrain this afternoon. Moderate easterly trade winds and stable conditions will prevail this weekend and through most of next week. Showers will mainly be confined to windward slopes.

Detailed Discussion

An easterly trade wind flow is building across the island chain this afternoon. The islands lie under the western periphery of a broad area of surface high pressure centered far northeast of the state, while a slow moving and front is weakening roughly 350 miles northwest of Kauai. As the front weakens, the ridge has exerted greater influence over the state, causing easterly trade winds to increase several mph compared to this time yesterday. A diffuse band of low level moisture moved across the Big Island and Maui last night and recently fell apart over Oahu. This feature dropped less than 1/4 inch of rainfall on windward Oahu around mid day and triggered a brief period of leeward shower activity before largely dissipating. Lingering moisture from this feature has kept humidity up, but increasing trades are providing some relief in spite of above normal high temps of around 90.

Easterly trade winds are expected to continue to temporarily strengthen tonight. This will occur as the front northwest of Kauai begins to dissipate and surface high pressure to the northeast exerts greater influence. Expect dew points to fall a few degrees back to seasonal normal. Stable conditions will continue, keeping modest rainfall focused over windward slopes.

Little change is in store through next week. After the initial surge, easterly trade winds will decrease slightly as the area of high pressure to the northeast weakens and its associated ridge remains disrupted north of the state. In fact, the easterly winds could be weak enough to allow another round of extensive leeward sea breezes on Memorial Day and Tuesday afternoons. Models are hinting at stronger trades building in on Wednesday or Thursday. Overall, conditions will remain stable as a mid level ridge holds overhead. Showers will favor windward slopes, though small pockets of moisture will lead to periodic and brief increases in shower activity.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91 at the shore to 70 to 78 upcountry. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.