2-4 foot
1-3 foot
3-5 foot
3-5 foot

Fresh to strong trades associated with high pressure north of the waters are forecast to hold through much of the upcoming week. Strongest winds are expected over the channels east of Oahu, south of the Big Island, and Maalaea Bay. Seas have responded and will remain rough, likely holding near or at the advisory level (10 ft) south of the Big Island and across the Alenuihaha Channel through the weekend. A weakness within the ridge is forecast to develop by Tuesday as a front passes far north of the area, which may translate to the strong trades slightly weakening locally for a brief period.

The north-northwest (330-350 deg) swell that filled in and peaked Friday will gradually trend down through the weekend. Surf along north facing shores will respond and lower. Another small north- northwest pulse could bring the surf back to similar levels by midweek along north facing shores.

Two overlapping long-period south-southwest (190-200 deg) swells from a couple of sources that passed near New Zealand around a week ago will fill in and peak over the weekend. Latest observations at the offshore buoys to the south and the nearshore PacIOOS buoy near Pearl Harbor are reflecting this new long-period energy filling in. Surf heights will build to levels similar to the swell earlier in the week around the peak, with heights expected to remain just below advisory levels. Another similar pulse out of the south-southwest is expected through midweek or by Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually build through the weekend as fresh to strong trades hold locally and upstream south of high pressure. Heights should remain below advisory levels for east facing shores.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.80 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 1.00 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of -0.25 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 2.34 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 05:45 am this morning and will set at 06:59 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 3:50 AM on Tuesday, May 22nd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am August 21st, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 19th May 2018

Summary

Breezy trade wind weather is on tap for the foreseeable future, with clouds and showers favoring windward areas. While the trade winds will deliver brief passing showers to the smaller islands through the weekend and next week, an increase in windward showers is expected over the Big Island and Maui tonight and Sunday.

Detailed Discussion

An E-W oriented surface ridge along 31N-32N will remain nearly stationary through the weekend, supporting locally breezy ENE trade winds. The high is forecast to weaken and move E early next week as a front passes N of the area, but a new high building NW (and then N) of the islands will continue to support breezy trade winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Any decrease in wind speed early next week will be fairly short-lived, but trades are expected to become NE as the new high builds to the NW.

Latest model guidance supports the notion that a relatively dry trade wind weather pattern will prevail today over the smaller islands, and satellite and radar shows scattered shower-producing small cumulus immediately upstream. Near and E of the Big Island, and an of increased low-level moisture is noted, and model guidance expects this area to bring some showers today, with increasing showers expected tonight and Sunday. The bulk of this moisture is expected to stream over the Big Island, and potentially Maui, and may fuel a slight increase in showers over windward portions of the other islands.

A front passing well N of the area will cause the ridge to briefly weaken early next week, allowing for what is expected to be a brief and subtle decrease in trade wind speeds. As a new high builds NW and N of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday, trade winds will likely back to the NE, and then veer to a more typical ENE direction later in the week when the high moves E. Random pockets of moisture riding in on the trades will bring passing windward showers for most of the week. GFS and ECMWF indicate that moisture associated with the passing front will get caught in the trade wind flow, and bring an increase in windward showers about a week from now.

Close monitoring of Kilauea on the Big Island continues, as Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) personnel indicate that additional steam- driven explosions are possible at any time. Two small bursts were noted overnight, around 1158 pm and 203 am, with radar indicating that whatever was ejected (steam/ash/cloud) only extended up to about 7000 feet and dissipated quickly. A Special Weather Statement was just allowed to expire as Big Island Civil Defense reports little to no ash impacts. If a larger burst were to occur, an Ashfall Advisory or Warning would likely be necessary.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 25 mph in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 20 to 25 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 71. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 68 at the shore to 51 to 56 upcountry. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph until early morning. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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