1-4 foot
1-3 foot
1-3 foot
4-6 foot

A bump on the south swell is expected Saturday as additional long period energy is expected to arrive. This should maintain heights along south facing shores similar to what was seen Friday. The incoming swell will likely wrap to some west facing shores. Additional impulses along the south shore are possible during the end of next week. The trade wind swell will continue to bring surf near advisory levels to the east facing shores into early next week.

Surf along the north facing shores will remain small through the start of the new week. A gale east of Japan is expected to track to the northeast, and then stall near the western Aleutian islands. This could generate a small northwest swell that would reach the islands during the second half of the week.

A strong high pressure system remains far northeast of the islands, and is expected to remain nearly stationary into the first half of next week. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for the channels east of Oahu, Maalaea Bay, the windward Maui County waters, and the waters south of the Big Island through Sunday, with other zones fairly close to SCA winds. Anticipate the SCA to be extended into the first part of next week as the winds will likely not change much, and it may need to be extended for additional areas.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.3 foot at 2:49 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.3 foot at 9:11 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 4:34 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 11:06 PM shortly before midnight

The sunrise was at 05:47 am this morning and will set at 06:57 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 17 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 12:35 AM on Friday, May 19th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

Wind: n/a at 0 mph
current observations as of 10am November 21st, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through early next week as strong surface high pressure remains far northeast of the state. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but will occasionally spread leeward. Rather wet conditions are expected for the second half of the weekend and early next week as an upper trough enhances bands of moisture embedded in the trade wind flow. A drier weather pattern with decreasing trade winds is forecast to develop by the middle of next week.

Overall shower coverage has decreased somewhat during the past few hours, with showers most abundant at this time over Kauai, and scattered showers over windward areas of the other islands. Mainly dry conditions prevail over leeward areas. Rainfall amounts during the past six hours have been generally light, with almost all gauges recording less than a quarter inch of rain during that time period. Surface analysis depicts a 1040 mb high centered about 1400 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, which is driving locally breezy trade winds over the state. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid/upper level low centered about 750 miles northwest of Kauai, with a weaker upper trough to the east of the Big Island. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows a band of somewhat higher moisture moving over Kauai and passing southwest of the other islands, with a large area of deep moisture associated with the upper trough located west of Kauai. The leading edge of another area of enhanced moisture is located just northeast of Maui, with a narrow wedge of drier air just ahead of this feature over the central part of the state and the Big Island at the moment. The 12Z soundings show little change during the past 12 hours, with elevated/weak inversions at 9-10K feet and PW values ranging from 1.14 to 1.32 inches.

Windward showers are likely to increase once again this morning and remain rather abundant through the day as the next area of enhanced moisture embedded in the trades moves through. The upper trough to our northwest will change little during this time, so conditions aloft will not be especially unstable. Therefore expect mainly typical trade showers with just a few brief and somewhat heavier showers possible. Showers will remain focused over windward/mauka areas, but some will spill into leeward areas, especially those areas just to the lee of the higher terrain, as locally breezy trade winds continue.

Showers will probably remain active especially over windward areas this evening, but may decrease again somewhat late tonight into early Sunday morning, at least for the smaller islands, as another slot of drier air moves in.

Sunday through Monday, mid/upper level troughing is forecast to dig down across the state from the north and east. This will provide a more unstable airmass with cooling temps aloft. Models show a couple more bands of enhanced moisture moving through in the trades during this time, although exact timing remains uncertain. With a strong surface high remaining anchored over the Northeast Pacific, expect locally breezy and rather wet trades to prevail. There is some potential for heavier downpours and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms during this time period, but models continue to differ as to the degree of instability aloft we will experience during this time, and confidence remains too low to mention heavy rains or thunder in the forecast at this time.

Models are showing a gradual transition back to a drier and more stable pattern beginning on Tuesday, as the mid/upper trough weakens and ridging builds in from the west. At this time, longer range guidance indicates fairly dry trade wind weather prevailing through the second half of next week, with the trades weakening somewhat as a weak front passes by to our north.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 71. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 at the shore to 52 to 58 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - May 13th, 2017