8-12 foot
3-5+ foot
2-4+ foot
4-6 foot

A slow-moving surface high with a central pressure near 1033 mb will sit about 850 nm northeast of the islands through the weekend, supporting strong to near gale force trade winds. The trades will drive an increase in short-period wind waves that will combine with an increasing long-period northwest swell to bring elevated seas, and a Small Craft Advisory is posted through Monday for all waters. Winds and seas will gradually trend down early next week as the high moves away, and a front washes out north of the islands. A new, but weak, high building northwest and north of the islands on Tuesday and Wednesday will support light to moderate trade winds. Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels in all zones by that time.

A new long-period northwest swell has been building at buoys 51101/51001 northwest of Kauai overnight, and observed wave heights are a little larger than forecast. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed north and west facing shores until Noon Sunday, as the swell is expected to peak tonight, then gradually diminish Sunday into Monday. A slightly smaller northwest swell arriving Monday through Wednesday will produce surf below advisory levels. Yet another northwest swell arriving Thursday may peak near advisory levels before diminishing on Friday.

Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores will gradually build to advisory levels Sunday and Monday as the upstream fetch of trade winds increases. Surf along east facing shores is expected to diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as winds diminish. A small long- period south swell will build slightly into Sunday, peak below advisory levels, then diminish Monday and Tuesday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:37 am this morning and will set at 06:34 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 3 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 10:26 AM on Thursday, March 14th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 9th March 2019

Summary

Breezy to locally windy trades will prevail through the weekend as strong high pressure settles northeast of the state. Low clouds moving along in the trade wind flow will focus rainfall over windward areas, but some showers will spread leeward at times. An increase in showers is expected tonight through Monday morning as a band of moisture moves through. Trade winds are expected to gradually ease Monday through late next week, while continuing to deliver passing clouds and showers.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1032 mb high centered around 1000 miles northeast of Honolulu, is driving breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions over windward areas, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Additionally, some jet stream cirrus is beginning to spread northward over the Big Island, but appears fairly thin at the moment. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with some of the showers reaching leeward areas at times as well. The shower coverage is currently the greatest over Moloka`i and over the coastal waters east of Oahu. Main short term focus revolves around the strong trades and rainfall trends.

Model solutions are in excellent agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern through the forecast period. High pressure north-northeast of the state will slowly shift eastward today, before becoming nearly stationary around 1000 miles northeast of the island chain tonight through early Monday. The area of high pressure will begin to track eastward again later Monday, then accelerate towards the west coast of the continental United States Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front passes by to the north of the islands. The front will stall out and dissipate around 300 to 400 miles north of Kauai Wednesday night, with a surface ridge axis settling southward to a position around 100 to 150 miles north of Kauai by Friday.

Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected to prevail through through Monday, although the trade wind speeds should edge slightly lower on Monday. Winds have dropped below advisory levels this morning and should remain below this threshold through the day, therefore the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. There are a couple periods where we could see a slight increase in the trade wind speeds however, tonight and again Sunday night, and during those times some of the typically windier zones across Maui County and the Big Island that accelerate the winds most effectively could potentially reach low end Wind Advisory levels. Will let the day shift take a look at the latest model guidance and make a decision on the need for a Wind Advisory headline with the afternoon forecast package. The trades will trend downward Monday and Monday night, then hold in the moderate range Tuesday through Thursday, before becoming light by Friday.

Fairly stable conditions remain in place across the island chain early this morning, with a strong inversion noted in the morning soundings between 5.5 and 7 kft. Precipitable water values remain well below normal for this time of year in the 0.75 and 1.0 inch range. A disorganized band of low clouds and showers is developing to the north of Maui County and east of Oahu early this morning, and this should lead to an increase in shower coverage across Oahu and Kauai this morning, with the band holding over Kauai through the afternoon hours as Oahu attempts to dry out. Across Maui County and the Big Island, trade wind shower coverage should not be as great, and we should see a typical diurnal downward trend here in the afternoon as well. A more pronounced band of moisture is expected to push into the islands tonight and linger through Monday morning. This should bring periods of fairly wet weather to windward areas, with more regular leeward spillover. The showers will likely be most prevalent at night into the morning hours.

High clouds are also expected to spread northward into the central islands, and perhaps as far west as Oahu, today through Sunday as a strong jet stream lifts northward over the state. The thickest high cloud cover is expected over Maui County and the Big Island this afternoon through early Sunday.

Fairly typical trade wind weather is expected statewide from late Monday morning through the remainder of the work week, with some decrease in shower coverage likely toward the end of the week as upper level heights build and the surface ridge axis settles southward and closer to the island chain. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas with a few showers reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny. Windy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 79. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 54 upcountry. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.