Although the surf will start off on the flat to tiny side today, a new north-northwest swell is expected to arrive later in the day to pump things into the well-overhead range. With luck, the swell will hit before the sun goes down, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t arrive until later tonight into Thursday. North and northwest facing shores should only be around 1-4 foot today with maybe a few larger sets possible at the best breaks, but if the swell hits early, we could see a rapid rise into the 6-10 foot range. Upper West shores should stay flat at only 0-2 foot, but also could rise into the 3-5 foot range if the swell hits early. Windswell along our east and northeast facing shores should stay small and choppy at only 1-3 foot and shouldn’t be expected to change any time soon. Our south facing shores are flat as a lake at only 0-2 foot with no swell in sight. All is going well in the South Pacific for a southerly swell arriving around Wednesday… keep those fingers crossed.

1-4 foot am | 6-10?pm
0-2 foot am | 3-5?pm
0-2 foot
1-3 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 7th-9th
Far northwest of Hawai`i over the international dateline is a building low that is aiming its peak winds just to the northeast of Hawai`i. The models show this system setting up a decent fetch over the next few days as the jetstream directs it toward the east-southeast. If we are lucky, the resulting northwest swell will arrive Wednesday at moderate heights near double-overhead, but it is more likely that we will see surf just a few feet overhead at its peak. We’ll take whatever we can get this late in the season. A low forming east of Japan today is modeled to quickly track northeast and blossom southeast of Kamchatka around Wednesday, possibly creating a northwest swell for a Saturday arrival. Looking further into the models, another similar low is forecast to follow closely behind that has the potential of producing another northwest swell for next Monday. More details to come.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
A distant low far south of New Zealand near what remains of the Ross Ice Shelf is much too far away to send any surf our way, even if it were properly aligned. However, short-range forecast models do show this system gaining steam as it passes over the international dateline in the next couple of days. If the models hold true, this system may take a northeasterly track aimed toward French Polynesia while aiming a fairly decent fetch just to the east of Hawai`i. Tahiti should be able to pull in a pretty nice swell, but if all goes well Hawai`i could see a very early season south swell arriving around the middle of next week. Stay tuned as it all develops or fizzles out, and keep those fingers crossed.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: Moderately strong east to east-northeasterly tradewinds around 15-20 mph should be expected today, building into Thursday and then slowly fading into the weekend, primariliy out of the east.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.6 foot at 3:48am last evening, dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 10:28am later this morning, then risign through the afternoon to a high of 1.7 foot at 5:31pm, then dropping through the evening to a low of 1.0 foot at 11:05pm later tonight.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: we should see partly sunny conditions today with scattered windward and mauka showers possible and maybe even an isolated leeward shower blowing over. High temperatures should be in the 77-82° range under moderately breezy easterly tradewinds around 15-20 mph, possibly gusting to stronger levels in some areas. The dissipating cold front will allow the tradewinds to strengthen through Thursday after the front passes overnight. The passage of the front could trigger increased showers overnight but the atmosphere will then dry out through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure is expected to take over the weather pattern over the next several days, but it is forecast to settle slightly over the state which would weaken the pressure gradient and resulting winds. The tradewinds won’t go away, but they should be light to moderate through the weekend.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 9th 2011