Minor leftovers may still be found along our north and northeast facing shores today, but don’t expect a lot. A new northwest swell may arrive today, but it will probably be so small it is hardly worth mentioning, but hopefully it will at least rise to chest high levels by the time it peaks. Our north facing shores may see surf around 2-4 foot today or slightly better at the best breaks, just keep in mind that the short-period leftovers won’t have much power. Upper West shores will likely come in flat at 0-3 foot. Short-period northeast swell mixed with slopy windswell may offer poor surf in the 1-4 foot range along our east facing shores. The next chance for surf won’t come until a new round of north-northwest swell arrives late Wednesday or early Thursday, hopefully peaking well overhead. Believe it or not, we may have a south swell in the not-to-distant future… details in the forecast below.

1-4 foot
0-3 foot
0-2 foot
1-4 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 7th-9th
Far northwest of Hawai`i over the international dateline is a building low that is aiming its peak winds just to the northeast of Hawai`i. The models show this system setting up a decent fetch over the next few days as the jetstream directs it toward the east-southeast. If we are lucky, the resulting northwest swell will arrive Wednesday at moderate heights near double-overhead, but it is more likely that we will see surf just a few feet overhead at its peak. We’ll take whatever we can get this late in the season. A low forming east of Japan today is modeled to quickly track northeast and blossom southeast of Kamchatka around Wednesday, possibly creating a northwest swell for a Saturday arrival. Looking further into the models, another similar low is forecast to follow closely behind that has the potential of producing another northwest swell for next Monday. More details to come.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
A distant low far south of New Zealand near what remains of the Ross Ice Shelf is much too far away to send any surf our way, even if it were properly aligned. However, short-range forecast models do show this system gaining steam as it passes over the international dateline in the next couple of days. If the models hold true, this system may take a northeasterly track aimed toward French Polynesia while aiming a fairly decent fetch just to the east of Hawai`i. Tahiti should be able to pull in a pretty nice swell, but if all goes well Hawai`i could see a very early season south swell arriving around the middle of next week. Stay tuned as it all develops or fizzles out, and keep those fingers crossed.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: Moderately breezy east-northeasterly tradewinds should reach into the 10-20 mph range today, possibly stronger in select areas. The trades should decrease a little into Tuesday but are expected to rise again Wednesday while straightening out to a more easterly direction.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.9 foot at 3:22am late last night, dropping to a flat low of 0.0 foot at 9:42am this morning, rising through the afternoon to a high of 1.9 foot at 4:08pm later this afternoon, then fading through the evening to a low of 0.5 foot at 9:59pm.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: we should see partly sunny skies today although some areas may see some shower activity this morning, especially over windward slopes. Scattered showers are possibly in the afternoon, but nothing heavy should be expected. High temperatures should be in the 76-81° range under moderately breezy east to east-northeasterly tradewinds around 10-20 mphM. The trough and associated instability has moved past Maui over the Big Island so we shouldn’t see too much rainfall over Maui County, but a few stray showers are possible. Otherwise typical tradeshowers are likely over windward and mauka areas. This new round of tradewinds are likely to mellow a bit through Tuesday but should increase to moderately strong levels Wednesday and through the rest of the week due to a building high pressure system north of Hawai`i. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the state later in the week which should further dry out the atmosphere.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 7th 2011