A combination of swells will hit our north and northeast facing shores today as well as the possibility of some west facing shores. A moderate west-northwest swell combined with a smaller north-northeasterly swell should provide plenty surf along our winter shores today and Friday, reinforced by a more north-northwesterly swell over the weekend. North facing shores should see buidling surf into the 5-8+ foot range, potentially reaching well overhead levels at the best breaks. Upper West shores may see some action in the 4-6 foot range if we’re lucky, but don’t expect it. Our east and northeast facing shores should see surf in the 0-2 foot, but we may see a small to moderate bump out of the south-southwest arriving Friday. Nothing significant is on the horizon, but we won’t go flat either.

5-8+ foot
4-6? foot
0-2 foot
2-5 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 3rd – 5th
The current west-northwest swell was generated near Japan last weekend and will be mostly blocked by our neighbor islands unfortunately, peaking today with slow fade into Friday. The north-northeast swell was generated by a gale in the Guld of Alaska and should also peak today and drop into Friday. An unimpressive low passed over the dateline yesterday and is now north-northwest of Hawai`i tracking toward the east-southeast as it passes by far to the north of the state. Peak winds did not reach gale status and will probably only provide us with a small swell arriving Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately, a nearby low is likely to produce a rough and short-period swell arriving late in the day Friday. Looking further west, a broad area of low pressure may be able to whip up a minor swell series arriving Monday into Tuesday but we shouldn’t expect too much. The long-range forecast is a little sketchy with not too much to get excited about at the moment.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Our south shores will remain seasonally flat aside from some minor background swell in some areas. The strengthening kona winds may be able to whip up some short-period and rough south to southwesterly windslop through Friday or Saturday. Although the South Pacific has some action, the jetstream is dipping southeast under New Zealand and is directing most of the swells far from our shores. A weakening low near Tasmania today may be able to push some energy up the Tasman Sea corridor, but the south seas archipelego will absorb most of this swell.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The light winds will turn kona today around 5-15 mph swinging from southeasterlies to southwesterlies through the day, increaseing tomorrow with strong gusts likely in the 25mph range, then decreasing Saturday.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 2:07am late last night, dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 8:24am this morning, then rising to a high of 1.7 foot at 1:57pm in the mid-afternoon hours, then dropping to a negative low of -0.1 foot at 7:57pm later this evening.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: Mostly cloudy conditions with the chance of scattered showers over Maui while Kaua`i and O`ahu see a much higher chance of rain. High temperatures should be in the 77-82° range under light to moderate southerly winds of 5-15 mph with some areas seeing gusts near 20 mph. The threat of heavy showers should stay over the western half of the state, but Maui County could see scattered showers developing through the day today. A nearby low pressure system developing just to the west of the state will keep the atmosphere unstable through the beginning of the weekend as an associated cold front passes over the islands. The system itself is expected to pass north of the state Thursday. The winds are likely to become quite strong Thursday, especially at the summit of Haleakala. A High Wind Watch is in effect through Friday for the summits of Maui and the Big Island. Although the front forecast to weaken into a trough before reaching Maui, there will be plenty of moisture to develop rain showers across the islands through Saturday, potentially heavy at times. Building high pressure behind the front should bring a return of the tradewinds early next week.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 3rd 2011