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The tail-end of a front passing well to the north of the area today will drift south into the local area Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trades will quickly fill in across the coastal waters in its wake as high pressure builds to the north early next week. Winds are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds sometime Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Surf will continue to gradually decrease along north facing shores as the current north and northwest swells fade. A small reinforcing north-northwest swell is expected to arrive late today and peak Sunday. A moderate short-period north swell is expected Monday into Tuesday as a gale-force low develops far north of the state this weekend. As this low tracks further east, the swell direction will veer northeasterly and should bring advisory level surf to east facing shores near the middle of next week, and will likely remain elevated into the weekend.

Surf along south facing shores could see a rise late next week due to a gale- to storm-force low positioned southeast of New Zealand. Confidence in the details will increase once this energy passes through the American Samoa nearshore PacIOOS buoy later this weekend into early next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:43 am this morning and will set at 06:32 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 26 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 4:05 PM on Wednesday, March 6th.

Maui Weather

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Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 2nd March 2019

Summary

A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is expected through the weekend and the upcoming week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail with the best rainfall chances remaining focused over windward areas. The exception will be Sunday through Monday as the tail-end of a weak front drifts south through the islands and brings a slight increase in rainfall chances. Breezy trades will fill in behind this weak boundary and remain in place through the upcoming week.

Detailed Discussion

The latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure north-northwest of the islands and a cold front several hundred miles to the north-northwest. A small area of slightly higher moisture (around an inch of precipitable water (PW)) has moved into the area within the northerly flow overnight. This slight increase in moisture combined with an upper trough has been enough to spark scattered showers across the adjacent windward waters, windward and northern sections of the central islands this morning. Rainfall accumulations, however, have remained light with peak six hour totals (through 2 AM HST) less than half of an inch over Maui County and Oahu.

The latest short-term guidance is lining up well the current pattern and supports a mostly dry and relatively cool pattern continuing. The northerly winds are forecast to veer to a more typical trade wind direction through the day today. The previously mentioned front to the north-northwest is forecast to pass the state to the north today through tonight. The tail-end of this boundary will sag southward into the area late Sunday through Monday. Despite some minor timing differences all of the hi-res model solutions depict a narrow line of showers associated with this weak boundary moving through the western end of the state Sunday afternoon, then across the eastern end Monday. Rising upper heights combined with an abundance of dry air above this shallow moist layer near the surface will limit rainfall accumulations through this time. Model PWs are forecast to remain below an inch.

High pressure will build north of the state in the wake of this diminishing boundary early next week. Trades will respond and become breezy, which will likely hold through the week. Showers will remain limited due to the dry air expected, focusing primarily over windward areas each day. For the long range, guidance depicts a 1035 to 1040 mb high pressure setting up north of the state late next week into the weekend. If this pattern evolves, trades will become strong locally, potentially nearing or reaching Wind Advisory thresholds.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 55 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows around 65 at the shore to 48 to 54 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.