The large windswell should continue along our east and some northeast facing shores today but it will slowly fade over the weekend as the supporting tradewinds decrease. The National Weather Service has continued the High Surf Advisory through 6am Saturday morning due to windswell near advisory levels of 8 foot faces. The choppy windswell should come in around 4-8 foot at the better exposed east and northeast facing shores but most areas will come in below advisory levels. Fading north-northwest swell along our north and some northwest facing shores should be around 2-4 foot today but select breaks could see larger sets near head-high. Upper West shores hasve a good chance of wrapping windswell in the 2-4 foot range, possibly higher at the better breaks, just don’t expect too much. South facing shores shouldn’t see any action at only 0-3 foot, but those who know where to look could see waist to chest high sets from wrapping windswell. Unfortunately, the surf will be in a fading trend through the weekend and we won’t see much action until at least Tuesday. A better northwest swell is expected to arrive Thursday, potentially reaching advisory levels.

2-4 foot
2-4 foot
0-3 foot
4-8 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 23rd-25th
Well, it is definitely Spring. The forecast is calling for mostly windswell through the period, but there is a chance that we could see another decent northwest swell in the not-too-distant future. Currently we have fading northwest swell near head-high levels produced by a poorly aimed fetch near the central Aleutian Islands a few days ago. If we’re lucky, we could see a slight reinforcement arriving Friday from a similar fetch, but it won’t make it far past head-high levels either. But do what you can to paddle out as it’s looking like we’ll see near flat conditions through the weekend, aside from the easterly windswell that is. The strong tradewinds should continue to provide Hawai`i with head-high windswell for at least the next several days, probably through the weekend. Windspeeds are expected to drop to more moderate levels over the next few days and through the period but should still be strong enough to provide at least some windswell. The models are predicting a low developing over the dateline Friday and then deepening into a compact cell just south of the central Aleutians into the weekend. If all goes well, a minor north-northwest swell could be generated that would arrive around Monday or Tuesday, but it would not be aimed that well toward Hawai`i and we would likely just get an edge-pass. Looking further out, the models continue to predict a relatively strong low developing east of Japan over the weekend that could produce a decent northwest swell as it tracks almost due east through the beginning of next week. It’s too early yet, but the models go on to show the low broadening as it pushes toward the Gulf of Alaska through the rest of the week while aiming a long-lived fetch toward Hawai`i. stay tuned for updates as the episode unfolds.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
The South Pacific has been and will continue to send energy our way out of a broad area east and southeast of New Zealand. The first chance for south swell may arrive Saturday at small levels, but the source was very deep in the South Pacific off of the Ross Ice Shelf. Whatever survives the long journey will likely be pretty small. The odds should be better for another round of south swell arriving around Tuesday, produced by a source well southeast of New Zealand. We shouldn’t expect anything significant along our south shores but I think it’s safe to expect plenty small background swell through the period. In fact, the models show the storm track to be aimed favorably through most of the forecast, we just need some stronger gales. As the winter season draws to a close we can only hope for a great summer.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The moderate to strong easterly tradewinds will continue today around 15-25 mph with stronger gusts still possible in some areas. Windspeeds are expected to slowly decrease through the weekend but should stay at moderate breezy levels through the upcoming week.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: A single low tide at Kahului will bottom out at 0.1 foot at 11:59am just before noon today and will slwoly rise to a single high tide of 1.8 foot at 9:07pm later this evening. The moon’s phase will reach Last Quarter Saturday.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: mostly sunny conditions should prevail today with isolated windward an mauka showers in the morning. High temperatures should be in the 78-83° range under strong easterly tradewinds of 15-25 mph still potentially gusting to near 40 mph in some areas. Overall, a typical trade pattern will play out today as the long run of strong winds slowly fades into the weekend. Most of Maui should stay relatively dry as rainfall stays over windward and mauka areas. We may see a little increase in showers Saturday due to a trough developing over the islands. The high pressure north of the state is weakening and drifting toward the east, easing the local tradewinds, but upstream tradewinds should continue into next week. Although we should still see a few typical tradeshowers through the forecast period, overall conditions should be rather dry after the weekend.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 25th 2011