2-4 foot
3-5 foot
1-3 foot
3-5 foot

The nearshore buoys show that the current northeast swell continues to slowly decline early this morning, with surf along east facing shores expected to remain below High Surf Advisory levels. This will continue to subside during the weekend, and no other significant swells are expected through the middle of next week. A modest north-northeast swell is expected from late tonight through Monday. A small northwest swell is also expected from Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by another small northwest swell during the middle of next week. Small south-southwest and southwest swells are also expected to continue through the next several days.

Even though winds and seas are expected to remain generally below Small Craft Advisory levels today and tonight, mariners should be aware of the threat of inclement weather, with locally strong winds and high seas due to possible thunderstorms.

A weak area of low pressure is expected to move across the central and eastern parts of the state later today and tonight. Ahead of and with this low, widespread rain will continue, with a chance of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Once this low departs to the north of the state, expect gentle mainly southwest to west winds across the waters Sunday through Monday, followed by light and variable winds transitioning into gentle trade winds by the middle of next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:23 am this morning and will set at 06:39 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 7 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 12:37 PM on Saturday, March 31st.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

79°/82°
Wind: NE at 26 mph
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM
current observations as of 1pm May 22nd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 24th March 2018

Summary

A low pressure disturbance moving through the region continues to drive rain showers eastward across the state today. Moderate to heavy showers over the western islands led to elevated stream levels on Kauai and Oahu with some reports of flash flooding this morning. These convective showers will move into Maui and Hawaii County later today with periods of heavy rainfall and the potential for a few thunderstorms. Strong winds aloft are reaching the Big Island summits coupled with snowfall and low visibilities will produce treacherous wintery conditions at the highest elevations. Drier air will move into Kauai later this morning and Oahu this afternoon with improving weather conditions pushing eastward across the entire state on Sunday. Wind speeds will become light and trend towards land and sea breezes for the first half of next week. Trade winds returning with isolated to scattered windward and mauka showers by Thursday.

Detailed Discussion

Moderate to heavy rain has fallen across portions of Kauai and Oahu this morning resulting in elevated stream levels and a few reports of flash flooding on the windward side of Oahu. Radar imagery this morning shows these showers drifting eastward into Maui and Hawaii Counties. Satellite imagery shows drier air already moving into Kauai from the west.

The big picture shows a strong high pressure center northeast of the islands with a low to the north-northwest and a subtropical jet stream producing extensive high and mid level clouds. Meanwhile an eastward moving upper level disturbance will produce moderate to heavy showers across the state today. A surface trough lingers south of the islands and model guidance continues to show the upper level disturbance deepening this surface trough into a low center later today.

Deep moisture, instability and upper level forcing will produce widespread showers across much of the state. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect statewide. A few thunderstorms will develop by the later morning into the afternoon hours and the potential for isolated severe storms remains in the forecast for storms developing near Big Island by late afternoon and evening. Satellite imagery and model guidance continues to indicate drier air moving into Kauai and Oahu later this morning with decreasing chances for showers over these western islands later today. This improving weather trend should reach Maui County around sunset and Hawaii County by early Sunday morning.

The Big Island Summit weather conditions will deteriorate today as a combination of strong upper level sustained winds in the 50 to 70 MPH range with near zero visibility and snow showers will produce treacherous conditions above the 12,000 foot level. A Blizzard Warning was issued to cover these hazardous conditions which are expected to last through Sunday morning. High winds may linger into Sunday afternoon and additional wind warning or advisory products may be needed after the Blizzard Warning expires.

Monday through Wednesday…The low pressure system developing over the islands today will drift northward as the East Pacific high drifts eastward away from the islands. This changing pattern will result in a shutdown in our large scale trade wind flow with lighter winds allowing a land and sea breeze regime to take over across Hawaii. Overall drier weather conditions are expected compared to recent activity. Expect onshore winds each afternoon to build clouds and a few showers over interior sections of each island. Overnight offshore land breezes will clear out most of the cloud cover. A weak surface trough may linger near the Big Island for some enhanced shower activity along the eastern slopes.

Thursday and Friday…A weak high pressure ridge develops over the state with a return to light easterly trade winds in the forecast along with scattered windward and mauka showers.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 80. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 76 to 81. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 65 to 80. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 80 at the shore to 61 to 67 upcountry. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Haleakala Summit

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Cloudy and breezy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

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