There won’t be much action on any shore today although lingering leftovers from the northwest may still be found at some of the better north shore breaks, most likely only around thigh to chest-high levels. Minor background swell out of the southwest may filter in to select south facing shores but Kaho`olawe will block most of that. A new northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday, produced by a strong low near the Kuril Islands beginning the middle of last week. A fetch was aimed in our direction but the low faded out quite a distance away from our islands. The resulting long-period swell could arrive as early as overnight tonight, but more likely Monday, building into the moderate to near high range when it peaks overnight Monday into Tuesday and slowly fades through Wednesday. The long-range models continue to show a Kuril/Kamchatka low developing around mid-week that could have the potential of producing a decent northwest swell for next weekend. It’s still too early for details or confidence so be sure to check back throughout the week for updates. In the meantime, cross your fingers or pray or whatever you feel you need to do. We are getting to that time of year where every swell counts and they will be fewer and farther between. The South Pacific models are showing the potential for some southerly surf developing in the near future, but nothing significant is forecast or is expected to be well aimed in our direction.
North and northwest facing shores may still hold on to northwest swell around 3-5 foot at some of the better breaks, and an occasional slightly larger set is still possible. Upper West shores won’t do as well at only 0-3 foot. Wrapping swell into the east and northeast facing shores won’t amount to much at only 0-3 foot. South facing shores may sneak in a little southwest swell at select breaks around 0-3 foot but don’t count on it.
Wind and Tide InformationHigh tide at Kahului was 2.06 foot at 1:00 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.26 foot at 7:21 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.62 foot at 1:05 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.06 foot at 7:02 PM early this evening. The sunrise was at 06:23 am this morning and will set at 06:39 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing gibbous phase and will reach Full Moon this Tuesday.
The light to moderate easterly tradewinds should stay around 10-15 mph today although it could be a bit gusty in some areas. This pattern is expected to continue through the end of the week, possibly weakening again over the next weekend.
Weather Outlook for Sunday
A band of moisture associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary will linger over the islands through most of next week. A trough aloft will enhance low clouds and showers on Sunday, and again around the middle of next week. High clouds carried by a jet stream will maintain mostly cloudy skies across the aloha state into Sunday.
A poorly defined surface trough and a band of clouds and showers associated with the remnants of an old frontal boundary, which moved across the western half of the state Friday and Friday night, extend northeast to southwest over Maui county early yesterday evening. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb surface high near 24*deg;N 173°W, or almost 1150 miles northwest of Kaua`i, is moving slowly toward the southeast. The rounded eastern end of a surface ridge extends from this high to a point about 430 miles north northeast of Kahului.
Water vapor imagery showed the axis of a large trough far west of the islands, which has been propagating slowly toward the east southeast since this afternoon. The core of a subtropical jet stream along the eastern flank of this trough aloft was northwest and north of the main Hawaiian island chain. This jet stream continues to carry broken to overcast high clouds over the islands from the southwest, so skies continue to be mostly cloudy across nearly all of the state.
These high clouds, which consist mostly of ice crystals, are making it difficult to determine the coverage of any low clouds below using satellite imagery. However, radar reflectivity imagery indicates there are scattered showers along the windward facing slopes and higher terrain of Maui, Moloka`i and O`ahu. Isolated showers have also developed near windward Kaua`i, and a few showers continue to linger along the leeward Big Island coastline. Most of the showers over the state appear to be rather light, but there appear to be localized moderate showers, especially over northeastern Maui.
Also, the presence of the surface trough over the central islands and the rounded eastern end of the surface ridge to the north of the smaller islands is affecting the low-level flow across the region. The surface winds are generally blowing at moderate speeds from the north northeast winds to the west of the surface trough from Maui to Kaua`i, while relatively weak southeast winds are east of the surface trough in the vicinity of the Big Island.
The forecast models appear to be in fairly good agreement about the trends in the local weather pattern into early next week. The surface high, which is now far northwest of Kaua`i, is expected to eventually move to a position far north of the island chain. The tightening of the pressure gradient south of this feature should allow a return to easterly trade winds across the islands. The bulk of the remnant moisture from the old front, which is was draped across Maui county last night, should continie to shift slowly westward today.
Also, the guidance indicates the upper level trough, which is now located far west of Kaua`i, will deepen as it propagates eastward closer to the state. The close proximity of this trough aloft to the western end of the state is expected to destabilize the atmosphere across Kaua`i and O`ahu coincident with the arrival of the band of enhanced moisture moving in from the east. This may create a rather wet weather pattern for some areas, especially across Kaua`i and O`ahu today. The atmosphere is expected to eventually become more stable again late Sunday night and Monday, but the band of enhanced moisture will continue to bring showers mainly across Kaua`i. By the middle of next week, the moisture band may shift southeast across the island chain again as the trough aloft to the west of Kaua`i deepens once more. This could produce another round of wet weather across most of the smaller islands from Kaua`i to Maui during the second half of next week.
Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are indicating a relatively deep surface low may form far north northeast of the islands early next weekend. The guidance suggests this low would move southeast through next weekend to position far northeast of the Big Island by late easter Sunday. If this forecast scenario were to develop, which is very unusual for late March, expect diffluent northerly flow to carry cool, dry air down over the aloha state from the north starting late next weekend. The forecast models continue to change the details about the strength and locations of the weather features from run to run. Therefore, confidence in the actual weather scenario that will develop beyond the middle of next week remains highly uncertain at this time.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 67. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 53 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 47 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at 7000 feet to around 40 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.