A High Surf Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for Maui’s east facing shores effective through 6am Friday morning due to windswell reaching near or slightly above 8 foot faces. The building windswell should reach into the 4-8 foot range along our better exposed east and some northeast facing shores today and could build a couple more feet tomorrow before slowly fading into the weekend. Fading north-northwest swell should still be in the 4-6 foot range but the strong local winds will likely shred any good sets that roll through. Upper West shores may see some small sets in the 1-4 foot range and some of the better breaks may see a little extra. South facing shores should stay in the 0-3 foot range. Although we may see a minor bump arriving Thursday, we won’t be seeing much action for a while. The models continue to predict a fairly decent gale setting up east of Japan over the weekend with the potential of sending over a good swell for the second half of next week. Details in the forecast below.

4-6 foot
1-4 foot
0-3 foot
4-8 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 23rd-25th
Well, it is definitely Spring. The forecast is calling for mostly windswell through the period, but there is a chance that we could see another decent northwest swell in the not-too-distant future. Currently we have fading northwest swell near head-high levels produced by a poorly aimed fetch near the central Aleutian Islands a few days ago. If we’re lucky, we could see a slight reinforcement arriving Friday from a similar fetch, but it won’t make it far past head-high levels either. But do what you can to paddle out as it’s looking like we’ll see near flat conditions through the weekend, aside from the easterly windswell that is. The strong tradewinds should continue to provide Hawai`i with head-high windswell for at least the next several days, probably through the weekend. Windspeeds are expected to drop to more moderate levels over the next few days and through the period but should still be strong enough to provide at least some windswell. The models are predicting a low developing over the dateline Friday and then deepening into a compact cell just south of the central Aleutians into the weekend. If all goes well, a minor north-northwest swell could be generated that would arrive around Monday or Tuesday, but it would not be aimed that well toward Hawai`i and we would likely just get an edge-pass. Looking further out, the models continue to predict a relatively strong low developing east of Japan over the weekend that could produce a decent northwest swell as it tracks almost due east through the beginning of next week. It’s too early yet, but the models go on to show the low broadening as it pushes toward the Gulf of Alaska through the rest of the week while aiming a long-lived fetch toward Hawai`i. stay tuned for updates as the episode unfolds.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
The South Pacific has been and will continue to send energy our way out of a broad area east and southeast of New Zealand. The first chance for south swell may arrive Saturday at small levels, but the source was very deep in the South Pacific off of the Ross Ice Shelf. Whatever survives the long journey will likely be pretty small. The odds should be better for another round of south swell arriving around Tuesday, produced by a source well southeast of New Zealand. We shouldn’t expect anything significant along our south shores but I think it’s safe to expect plenty small background swell through the period. In fact, the models show the storm track to be aimed favorably through most of the forecast, we just need some stronger gales. As the winter season draws to a close we can only hope for a great summer.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The easterly tradewinds are going to howl again today with wind speeds expected in the 15-30 mph range with gusts possibly reaching 50 mph in some areas. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6pm this evening.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.5 foot at 3:52am dropping through the morning to a low of -0.3 foot at 10:32am then rising through the afternoon to a high of 2.1 foot at 5:59pm and then dropping through the evening to a low of 1.0 foot at 12:14am shortly after midnight tonight.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: partly sunny and quite windy conditions should be expected today with scattered windward showers and isolated leeward showers. High temperatures should be in the 76-81° range under strong tradewinds of 15-30 mph gusting near 50 mph in some areas. Shower activity should be focused primarily over windward and mauka areas but a stray shower or two could blow over to select leeward areas. Most of the rainfall should fall overnight and through Thursday morning. The high pressure ridging is expected to weaken Thursday evening as will the surface high responsible for the strong winds. The winds are likely going to stay at fresh levels through the weekend though and won’t weaken to moderate levels until the beginning of next week as the high drifts further away. A trough forecast over the state this weekend will bring cooler air temps and a more unstable atmosphere which could lead to increased rainfall, mostly over windward and mauka areas. Another upper-level ridge is then forecast to edge its way toward the state around Tuesday which should lead to a drier and more stable airmass.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 23rd 2011