8-12+ foot
5-8 foot
1-3 foot
1-4 foot

Trade winds will shift out of a more easterly direction and strengthen into the fresh to strong category today through Monday as high pressure builds north of the state. A combination of the trades and a new north-northwest swell has led to seas climbing above the small craft advisory threshold (10 ft) overnight, which is above predicted levels by a couple of feet early this morning. Seas will hold at these levels through today, then gradually lower through the second half of the weekend into Monday as this north-northwest swell eases. Trades should begin to weaken next Tuesday through the midweek time frame as the ridge shifts south toward the area and another front approaches. Guidance continues to indicate light and variable winds by Wednesday followed by a quick shift out of the north Thursday as the boundary makes it into the area.

Surf along north and west facing shores will hold around advisory levels today due to the current north-northwest swell, then steadily ease tonight through Monday. A small reinforcement out of a more northerly direction is expected Monday night through Tuesday. Overlapping long-period northwest swells will fill in through the day Wednesday and hold into the second half of the week. Surf should remain below advisory levels Sunday through Wednesday for north and west facing shores and potentially reach advisory levels Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will rise Sunday due to fresh to strong trades. A downward trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as the trades weaken.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small each day with mainly background long period southerly pulses and short-period southeast energy expected.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:25 am this morning and will set at 06:39 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 4:11 AM on Thursday, March 28th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 6pm April 20th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 23rd March 2019

Summary

Breezy trade winds will continue through the rest of the weekend as the surface ridge of high pressure stays north of the islands. The remnants of a dissipating front may provide a boost in trade showers Monday and Tuesday. A front may usher in some unsettled weather to the islands the latter half of next week.

Detailed Discussion

The combination of fragments from the nearby frontal band and the standard trade showers, resulted in the influx of trade showers now affecting Kauai and Oahu. Trade showers are also affecting the remaining islands but not as frequent as Kauai and Oahu. Windward Kauai has been rather damp, with Kilohana picking up almost 3 quarters of an inch in a 3 hour period ending at 2 am HST. Oahu has seen lighter amounts, under a tenth of an inch at many windward locations. Even Daniel K. Inouye Airport picked up a trace in the past couple of hours. The frequency of these showers will be trending less for all but Kauai as the morning progresses. Kauai will continue to be influenced by the close proximity of the stalled frontal boundary through at least tonight.

This boundary will start falling apart later tonight and Sunday upwind of the islands. The trades will then pick them up and bring them over the islands between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Although the windward and mountain areas will take in most of the showers, a few of them will be drifting into the lee areas of the smaller islands. Isolated showers are possible for the Kona slopes/interior areas each afternoon, then shift to the coastline after sunset.

The 2 am HST soundings from LIH and ITO, still show a strong low level inversion based at around 7k feet. The GFS maintain this profile through tonight, followed by a slight rise to 9k feet on Sunday, then to 10 to 12k feet on Monday, which will support the remnants of the boundary passing through the islands.

The trade winds have strengthen slightly during the past 12 to 24 hours. The source of the trades is from 1027 mb high located 1100 miles northwest of Kauai. This high will be strengthening to 1031 mb while moving eastward through tonight and Sunday. The high takes a southeast motion thereafter and gradually weaken through Monday night. In response, we start losing the trades on Tuesday, while a front approaches the islands from the northwest. The winds will become light and variable on Wednesday as the front closes in on the islands. The models, ECMWF and GFS, are in fair agreement thus far with the front reaching Kauai around sunrise Thursday morning. The two models differ thereafter, with the EC stalling the front near Kauai and the GFS stalling it over the eastern part of the island chain early Friday morning. This signals a change of weather with more to come.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 67 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 62 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 54 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.