Fading northwest swell should stick around today at slightly lower levels as the sloppy tradeswell increases a bit. Our east and northeast facing shores should see short-period windswell in the 3-5 foot range or occasionally higher at the better exposed breaks, slowly increasing over the next few days, potentially raising the advisory flags. North and northwest facing shores may still see surf in the 4-7 foot range and a rare larger set may roll through from time to time at the best breaks. Upper West shores will probably only come in around 1-4 foot but some of the better exposed breaks could see additional wrapping windswell, just don’t expect much. South facing shores may see a little bump in the 1-3+ foot range but the southerly energy is on the way out. Another north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday to head-high levels, possibly reinforced Friday. The long-range forecast is showing a little promise, but its too early for any confidence… keep those fingers crossed.

4-7 foot
1-4 foot
1-3+ foot
3-5 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 20th-22nd
High pressure north of the islands will push most of the swell producing lows toward the Aleutian Islands through the forecast period which will keep any decent swells from forming. We should see a few minor bumps from the northwest to north-northwest this week, but I think we’ll be lucky to reach head-high levels at best. Wednesday should offer the best chance potentially followed by another smaller episode around Friday. The long-range models offer a glimmer of hope late in the forecast, but it is way too early to even mention. I guess the good news would be that the strong tradewinds will continue through the forecast period as well, so there should be plenty near head-high windswell to keep us from going completely insane. Today is officially the first day of Spring, so this forecast should be expected.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Shifting focus to the South Pacific we can see a lot of action but nothing significant. A broad low off the Ross Ice Shelf far southeast of New Zealand is aiming a fetch toward Hawai`i, and another forecast storm is modeled to push even more energy in our direction over the first half of the upcoming week. Realistically, this won’t result in anything larger than a small to possibly moderate south swell if it reaches our shores, but the long distance will be a serious factor whether we get anything at all. Looking way into the model runs, there is potential for another storm to push into the Tasman Sea around the beginning of next weekend, but the odds are low and we typically don’t see many swells from that direction making it to Maui’s shores. stay tuned.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The moderate to strong east-northeasterly tradewinds will continue again today around 15-25 mph with stronger gusts still possible in some areas. A similar but more easterly pattern should continue through Thursday before dropping slightly into the weekend to moderate levels. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for the summit of Haleakala effective through 6pm Wednesday evening.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.7 foot at 3:30am late last night, dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 9:58am this morning, rising through the afternoon to a high of 2.2 foot at 5:00pm then dropping through the rest of the evening to a low of 0.8 foot at 11:05pm.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: partly sunny and breezy conditions today with plenty morning showers expected, especially over windward and mauka areas. High temperatures should be in the 76-81° under breezy to strong east to east-northeasterly tradewinds of 15-25+ mph. High pressure north of the islands is still strengthening and should raise the windspeeds again, most likely becoming quite strong at Haleakala’s summit this morning. Moisture left over from an old frontal system got caught up in the tradeflow and should raise the chance for increased rainfall through the morning but the atmosphere should dry a bit this afternoon and evening. The models show another influx of moisture arriving Wednesday evening, so it is likely that we’ll see more widespread showers later in the week. The high pressure is expected to weaken late in the work week and then drift off toward the east into the weekend which should drop the wind speeds to more moderate levels.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 22nd 2011