Moderate to large short-period windswell will continue along our east and northeast facing shores today, just under advisory levels of 4-7 foot. The NWS has continued the High Surf Advisory through 6pm this evening but levels should already be on the way down. A new northwest swell is expected to arrive today that should fill in to overhead levels around 6-10 foot or potentially a little higher at the best breaks. Upper West shores may pick up some of this swell around 2-5 foot possibly approaching overhead levels at the best locations if we’re lucky. South facing shores could see another round of small to low-end moderate surf today around 1-4 foot but the odds are low. The northwest swell should slowly fade over the next few days and there isn’t much on the horizon, so get what you can while it’s here.

6-10 foot
2-5 foot
1-4 foot
4-7 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 20th-22nd
High pressure north of the islands will push most of the swell producing lows toward the Aleutian Islands through the forecast period which will keep any decent swells from forming. We should see a few minor bumps from the northwest to north-northwest this week, but I think we’ll be lucky to reach head-high levels at best. Wednesday should offer the best chance potentially followed by another smaller episode around Friday. The long-range models offer a glimmer of hope late in the forecast, but it is way too early to even mention. I guess the good news would be that the strong tradewinds will continue through the forecast period as well, so there should be plenty near head-high windswell to keep us from going completely insane. Today is officially the first day of Spring, so this forecast should be expected.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Shifting focus to the South Pacific we can see a lot of action but nothing significant. A broad low off the Ross Ice Shelf far southeast of New Zealand is aiming a fetch toward Hawai`i, and another forecast storm is modeled to push even more energy in our direction over the first half of the upcoming week. Realistically, this won’t result in anything larger than a small to possibly moderate south swell if it reaches our shores, but the long distance will be a serious factor whether we get anything at all. Looking way into the model runs, there is potential for another storm to push into the Tasman Sea around the beginning of next weekend, but the odds are low and we typically don’t see many swells from that direction making it to Maui’s shores. stay tuned.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The strong and gusty easterly tradewinds will continue today around 15-25 mph with stronger gusts likely in some areas, holding about the same levels through Monday and then becoming even stronger beginning Tuesday.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 2:37am late last night, dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 8:54am this morning, rising again to a high of 2.3 foot at 3:23pm later this afternoon before dropping once again to a low of 0.2 foot at 9:26pm this evening. The moon has reached its Full phase.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: we should see mostly sunny and breezy conditions today with light scattered showers likely over windward and mauka areas. High temperatures should be in the 77-82° range under moderate to strong tradewinds of 15-25 mph. High pressure north of the state will keep the gusty tradewinds the focus of discussion again today although it has begun to weaken and drift slowly toward the north. The pressure gradient should relax a bit today into Monday which in turn will lead to slightly weaker wind speeds, but a new stronger high is expected to push into the area later Monday into Tuesday which will lead to another round of strong and gusty winds. Overall the rainfall should be kept to a minimum today but another passing cold front may bring some increased moisture to the region around Tuesday potentially leading to a wetter second half of the week. There will be no end to the strong winds any time soon.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 20th 2011