10-15++ foot
5-8+ foot
0-3 foot
1-4 foot

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue tonight, then ease Tuesday through Wednesday as a front passes by well to the north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through tonight, and this will likely need to be extended through Tuesday for portions of the marine area due to elevated seas associated with the current large northwest swell, with all areas forecast to drop below SCA levels by Tuesday night. The trades will begin to re-strengthen Wednesday night as a new high builds northwest of the state, reaching moderate to strong speeds once again Thursday through the weekend.

Surf along north and west facing shores continues to steadily decline this evening, but the latest buoy observations continue to support warning level surf along north and west facing shores. As a result, the High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in effect for most north and west facing shores and High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for west facing shores of the Big Island through tonight. Buoys 51001 and 51101 northwest of the state continue to show a steady decline in swell and should translate to surf dropping below warning levels from northwest to southeast down the island chain later tonight.

The active pattern across the northern Pacific will continue through the week with overlapping long-period northwest swells expected Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. The northwest swell Wednesday and Wednesday night will be the largest of the three, which could drive the surf close to warning levels around its peak. Otherwise, the series of swells is expected to keep surf near or at advisory levels along north and west facing shores Wednesday through Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through midweek, then rise Friday into the weekend as strong trades return locally and upstream. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week with mainly background southerly pulses moving through.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:28 am this morning and will set at 06:38 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 13 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 4:11 AM on Thursday, March 28th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 6pm April 20th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Tuesday, 19th March 2019

Summary

A high pressure system will drift eastward just north of the Hawaiian Islands, keeping moderate trade winds in the forecast through Tuesday. Dry stable air aloft will limit shower activity. On Wednesday, a cold front approaching the islands from the north will weaken the ridge and produce light winds. High pressure will build back in over the region from Thursday onward with a cold front bringing clouds and showers to the islands on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger trade winds are expected to arrive with the frontal passage.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery this evening shows stable stratocumulus clouds across the region with some clouds banking upstream of each island. A high confidence for fair weather remains in the local area forecast through Friday.

A surface high will drift eastward across the Central Pacific basin tonight with moderate trade winds continuing through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the surface high moves into the East Pacific and a broad trough with associated cold front will move into the Central Pacific. This trough will weaken the ridge north of the islands producing a light wind regime on Wednesday with modified sea breezes developing over leeward sections of each island. Large scale subsidence under the upper level subtropical ridge will keep a stable layer aloft (trade wind inversion) capping vertical cloud development to around 6000 feet. Shower activity will therefore remain isolated through Wednesday.

A stronger surface high will move eastward into the Central Pacific on Thursday, heralding a return to northeast trade winds with just a slight increase in windward shower activity. A weak cold front will drift into the islands from the north reaching Kauai on Saturday morning. Expect clouds and showers to spread southeastward across the rest of the state through the weekend. Model trends from both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) over the last 24 hours are showing a weaker and slower moving frontal boundary. Cloud heights on model cross sections are now ranging between 8000 and 10000 feet, roughly 2000 feet lower than previous operational model runs. However, surface trade winds remain strong which will tend to focus clouds and showers over windward and mountain areas of each island through the weekend.

Dry stable air aloft will move in behind the front and breezy trade winds will stay in the forecast through the first half of next week. Expect more typical isolated to scattered windward and mauka showers through the middle of next week with the higher trends in this range forecast during the overnight and early morning hours.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY. Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 61. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Sunny. Highs 76 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 49 to 61. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 60 at the shore to around 48 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Sunny. Highs around 83 at the shore to 64 to 69 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.