There won’t be much leftover along our north and northwest facing shores today as the large north-northwest fades to nothing. Some winter shores may be able to pick up wrapping windswell out of the east around 1-5 foot. Upper West shores should be mainly flat but some spots could also see some wrapping or reflected windswell around 1-3 foot. The south swell may still offer some minor surf in some of the better exposed summer breaks around 1-4 foot and a larger set or two isn’t out of the question. Our east facing shores should see plenty windswell in the 4-7+ foot range with a slow fade expected over the weekend. The National Weather Service has continued the Wind Advisory due to strong winds, so don’t expect the greatest conditions out there. Another northwest swell is expected to arrive Sunday, building to well-overhead yet under advisory level surf. The long-range doesn’t look too promising, so get it while it’s here.

1-5 foot
1-3 foot
1-4 foot
4-7+ foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 16th-18th
The northern jetstream is pushing the storm track well away from Hawai`i, from Japan up against the Aleutian Islands and then back into the Gulf of Alaska aimed toward northern California. This will limit our chances for surf through the next several days. The models continue to predict another strong low developing east of Japan that is expected to rapidly strengthen through Thursday before slamming into the central Aleutians Friday while setting up a broad fetch aimed somewhat toward Hawai`i, although much better toward the US Mainland. If all goes according to the models, we could see another large northwest swell arriving Sunday, potentially followed by smaller surf in the following days. It is still too early for confidence, but everything is looking good so far. The strong tradewinds both local and upstream will keep our east and northeast facing shores from going flat through the forecast period, likely hovering around head-high levels for quite some time. Of course the strong winds will also wreak havok on the surf conditions, but we get what we get.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
A small to moderate south swell is expected to arrive today along our summer shores, produced by a broad low far to the south of Hawai`i last week. We probably won’t see too much size today but Thursday may build to near head-high levels if we are lucky. Whatever does appear should stick around at small levels into the weekend, but we shouldn’t set our hopes high for anything. Another strong low in the South Pacific is building but it is way out of our swell window and isn’t worth mentioning. The models show a system tracking under Tasmania today that may be able to send some energy up the Tasman corridor but Maui doesn’t get much surf from this direction unless its huge. A low building over the weekend just off of Antarctica due south of New Zealand may be able to send some minor background swell about nine days later, but the odds are low. There isn’t much else to mention in the South Pac through the period.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: The strong easterly tradewinds will continue today and should hold at similar although slightly weaker levels through the weekend. Wind speeds should be in the 15-25+ mph range with gusts still possible in the 50 mph range in some areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through at least 6pm this evening.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 2.4 foot at 1:39am late last night, dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 7:58am this morning, rising into the mid-afternoon hours to a high of 2.0 foot at 1:54pm, then fading into the evcening to a low of -0.1 foot at 7:54pm tonight.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: Strong and gusty winds will continue under mostly sunny skies today with isolated showers possible over leeward areas. High temperatures should be in the 78-83° range with strong easterly winds of 15-25+ mph. The breezy tradewinds are due to a surface high now northeast of the area that is slowly moving to the west. The strong winds should stick through Saturday when expected to decrease as the high weakens. Windward areas could see increased rainfall over the next couple of days as moisture leftover from an old front pass over the state. As mentioned, wind speeds should slowly decrease a bit later in the weekend and early next week but will stay moderately breezy. A new high pressure is forecast to move into place north of the state around the middle of next week which should result in another round of strong tradewinds, possibly stronger than the current round. Rainfall should be relatively light and focused over windward and mauka areas through the forecast period.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 18th 2011