A series of progressively larger swells will begin today, ramping up to a very large swell late Tuesday into Wednesday. Wave height along our north and northwest facing shores may be in the 4-6 foot range through the morning hours as leftover energy from the west-northwest swings to a more northwesterly direction. The new northwest swell should build to well-overhead levels later in the day, so keep your eyes on the horizon. Upper West shores will probably start off on the small end around 2-4 foot but may see head-high sets by the end of the day. Windswell along our east and northeast facing shores is nearly flat now at only 0-2 foot but should build later in the week. South facing shores have no swell to mention at only 0-2 foot. We may see a small to moderate south swell arriving Wednesday as well. Plenty surf through the week!

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4-6+ foot
2-4+ foot
0-2 foot
0-2 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 13th-15th
The North Pacific has had a string of low pressure cells marching across in a general west to east pattern over the past couple of days that continues with a strong and rapidly building low approaching the dateline today. The first of these swells will arrive at some point today at overhead levels that build to well overhead levels into Monday. Another reinforcement is expected Monday that should push the wave heights near or just above advisory levels while swinging to a more north-northwesterly direction. The third and largest swell in the series should arrive Tuesday, also from the north-northwest and this one is likely to raise the warning flags. There is some bad news though. First, the low is tracking rather quickly toward the east which will limit the fetch length. Second, the tradewinds are forecast to be howling beginning Wednesday so the conditions will not be very good. However, Tuesday should offer some great surf for the tow-in crews and plenty of inside breaks. High pressure will then fill in to dominate a large area northwest of Hawai`i that will push the storm track up against the Aleutian Islands through most of the forecast period. The long-range models are hinting toward yet another very powerful low developing later next week that has the potential of producing another very large swell, but it is too early for any confidence. Enjoy what we get, and keep your fingers crossed for more to come.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
A broad low in the South Pacific was able to aim a decent amount of energy toward the North Pacific last week that should offer Hawai`i a small to moderate south swell arriving around Wednesday. I don’t think we should expect anything building over chest-high levels, but some of the better summer breaks may see some better sets. This action should stick around for a few days and could see a small reinforcement around Saturday. This secondary swell was produced by a smaller and weaker low far east-southeast of New Zealand and probably won’t amount to much. The South Pacific will continue to be quite energetic through the forecast period, but the overal storm track won’t aim much toward Hawai`i other than background swell. Long-range forecasts suggest a fairly strong system tracking under Tasmania around the middle of next week with the potential of sending some energy up the Tasman Sea aimed toward Samoa, but Maui usually never sees any swell from this direction. More details to come as it develops.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: Light south-southeasterly to easterly winds will drop into the 5-10 mph range today but some areas may still see wind speeds around 15 mph at times. The winds are expected to slowly increase through the first half of the upcoming week to reach very strong levels by Wednesday.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: Low tide at Kahului will slowly fade through the morning hours and early afternoon to a low of 0.2 foot at 2:39pm and will then slowly rise to a high of 2.0 foot at 11:31pm late this evening. The moon phase has reach First Quarter.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: sunny conditions should settle in with an isolated shower or two possible over windward and mauka areas. High temperatures should be in the 77-82° range under light easterly winds of 5-15 mph. Typical tradewind weather should be expected today and over the next several days under a relatively dry atmosphere. The usual windward and mauka tradeshowers are possible, nothing significant. A string of low pressure cells tracking easterly across the North Pacific will keep a weak ridge pushed down near the islands which will keep the pressure gradient rather slack for a few days. However, building high pressure beginning around Tuesday into Wednesday is expected to develop strong and gusty winds through the rest of the week and probably into the weekend. Wind speeds should easily reach strong levels and will likely have very strong gusts, potentially triggering a wind warning. Through the week the dry airmass should keep rainfall to a minimum and focused primarily over windward and mauka slopes.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 13th 2011