Although Kaua`i is under a high surf advisory, Maui is unfortunately not seeing that size of surf. Still, our better surf breaks should be able to pull in sets in the 6-10 foot range dropping to head-high levels Friday and then seeing a slight reinforcement out of the north-northwest over the weekend. Upper West shores probably won’t see to much more than 2-4 foot but some of the better exposed breaks may see larger sets. Windswell along our east and northeast facing shores may reach into the 2-5 foot range but the short-period slop won’t be anything to get excited over. South facing shores will stay flat at only 0-2 foot. A larger north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday that should reach advisory levels. There will be no shortage of surf next week!

6-10 foot
2-4 foot
0-2 foot
2-5 foot

Extended Surf Forecast

Hawaii Swell Height Model
Forecast for March 10th-12th
A series of northwest to north-northwest swells are expected to hit the islands through the forecast period, but the quick and zonal flow won’t allow anything to grow much beyond advisory levels. Currently a gale pushing over the Aleutian Islands is aiming a fetch toward Hawai`i but the majority of the energy will miss the islands leaving us with more of an edge-pass when it arrives Saturday or Sunday. Wave heights should only be expected to rise to head-high levels, but some surf breaks may be able to pull in larger sets if we’re lucky. The models show a quickly building low bombing just south of the Aleutians around 170&degW Saturday. If all goes well, a large northwest to north-northwest swell will develop for a Monday arrival, possibly reaching advisory levels. It is a little early for confidence, so don’t set your hopes too high yet. The models do show another low that could produce more action arriving around Thursday. Get what you can while its here though… Spring is right around the corner.

Hawaii Swell Period Model
A broad low in the South Pacific is sending up what could be a decent early-season south swell arriving next Wednesday. A low began building far south-southeast of New Zealand several days ago and then took a rather abrupt turn to the northeast, setting up a broad fetch aimed just east of Hawai`i. The travel distance is far and the odds are against us, but I think we should pick up at least a moderate south swell out of this that lasts for a few days. The main concern is that the main fetch was pretty far east of New Zealand which will put a lot of French Polynesian islands in the way. We’ll just have to wait to see what we get. The flow should remain aimed in a way that provides us with plenty background swell through the rest of the forecast period and beyond. It’s hard to accept that Winter is drawing to a close.

Wind and Tide Information

The Maui Wind Report for today is: Moderate to strong easterly tradewinds are expected today with wind speeds in the 15-20+ mph range, gusting to 25 mph in some areas.

The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 1.4 foot at 3:53am late last evening, dropping to a flat low tide of 0.0 foot at 10:56am later this morning, then rising through the afternoon to a high of 1.6 foot at 6:35pm early this evening, then dropping once again to a low of 1.2 foot at 11:59pm just before midnight.

Maui Weather

The Maui weather forecast is: partly sunny conditions will continue today with scattered windward and mauka showers possible in the afternoon hours. High temperatures should be in the 77-82&deg range with northeast to east tradewinds in the 15-20 mph range gusting to higher levels in some areas. High pressure far north of the state will keep the breezy tradewinds blowing through the day and likely overnight but an upper-level trough moving in to the region Friday may trigger a few more showers, but most of that activity will likely stay over Kaua`i and O`ahu. Weakening high pressure and a neary building upper-level ridge will in turn weaken the tradewinds through the weekend and at least early next week. The currently unstable atmosphere is expected to dry out and stabilize over the next few days. Long-range forecasts show a broad and strong high affecting our island weather next week as it pushes a shearline across the state, probably around Wednesday. If the models are correct, we would see strong winds building over the second half of next week. Stay tuned for details.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - March 10th 2011