Surf Outlook for Sunday, June 2nd 2019

North Shores:
1 to 3 feet through Sunday
West Shores:
1 to 3 feet through Sunday
South Shores:
2 to 4 feet through Sunday
East Shores:
3 to 5 feet through Sunday

A series of highs to the north of the state will keep moderate to locally strong trade winds in place through Tuesday. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to ease the trade winds back into the light to moderate range for the second half of the upcoming work week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through Monday. This SCA may eventually need to be extended, as conditions will likely flirt with SCA levels through Tuesday.

A series of south and southwest swells will maintain small surf along south facing shores through the upcoming work week. Slightly larger surf is possible next weekend. A small northwest swell will continue through the weekend. After that, surf will become nearly flat along north facing shores. Locally strong trade winds upstream of the islands will produce moderate surf along east facing shores through the first half of the week. This surf will subside later in the week as the trade winds weaken.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:42 am this morning and will set at 07:05 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 29 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 1:13 AM on Sunday, May 12th.

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 2nd June 2019

Summary

Locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next several days, but are expected to diminish around mid-week, and remain on the lighter side into next weekend. The trade winds will bring periods of clouds and showers to windward areas that will favor night and morning hours, but a passing upper-level disturbance may bring increased windward showers from Tuesday into Thursday.

Detailed Discussion

Not much change to the forecast philosophy offered up by latest model guidance. A trade wind weather pattern will prevail over the islands for the bulk of the forecast period, bringing passing clouds and showers that will favor windward and mauka areas, especially during nights and mornings. Most leeward areas will remain dry, except leeward Big Island will see afternoon clouds and showers lingering through the evening hours.

High pressure cells passing N of the islands will maintain the trade wind-supporting ridge to the N for the next several days, with locally breezy trade winds gustiest in the afternoon. The island atmosphere will remain relatively stable through Tuesday as a weak low aloft E of the islands moves away to the NE, but a somewhat elevated subsidence inversion will allow showers to develop within the incoming cloud field. A stronger upper-level disturbance is expected to pass over the islands from Tuesday to Thursday, bringing cooler mid-level temperatures that will likely lead to increased windward showers. The increased instability may also allow afternoon convection on the leeward slopes of the Big Island to become more vigorous, with some isolated heavy showers potentially popping up. The low may also bring thickening high clouds over portions of the state, primarily Maui and Hawaii counties.

A surface front will approach from the NW around the middle of the week, slowly weakening the ridge, and pushing it southward. Trade winds will ease in response, with light to moderate E to SE winds expected Thursday and Friday. As the front dissipates just N of the islands next weekend, and a new high builds to the N, light to moderate trade winds are expected. The low aloft will move away Friday, and an increasingly stable island atmosphere likely means minimal windward-based rainfall next weekend.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91 at the shore to 70 to 78 upcountry. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.