0-2 foot
0-2 foot
1-3 foot
2-4 foot

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to locally strong trade winds in place through tonight. The high north of the area will strengthen on Sunday, with strong trades returning to the coastal waters and continuing through much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through Tuesday. The SCA will likely need to be extended in time, possibly right through the end of next week. The increase in trades may also produce SCA conditions for additional waters at times from late Sunday through the middle of next week.

A series of swells from the southern hemisphere will continue through late next week. The current southwest swell will keep surf near the summertime average along south facing shores through tonight. As this swell fades on Sunday, a new south swell will build. This swell will peak Monday and Tuesday with south shore surf near the High Surf Advisory level. Another, similarly sized south swell is due in on Friday. Typical, short- period trade wind swell will affect east facing shores through late next week. Minimal surf is expected along north facing shores for the next several days, with a tiny increase in northwest swell possible by Wednesday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.05 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of -0.11 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 2.22 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 05:42 am this morning and will set at 07:05 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 6:34 PM on Wednesday, June 6th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 1am December 17th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 2nd June 2018

Summary

Expect moderate trade winds today with stronger trade winds from Sunday through Wednesday as high pressure builds in north of the islands. A trade wind pattern will remain locked in place through the end of next week with passing clouds and showers favoring windward areas, with a few showers briefly spreading over leeward sections. A low pressure system aloft will produce periods of enhanced clouds and showers today through Sunday morning, mainly over Kauai and Oahu.

Detailed Discussion

Trade winds will continue through next week with a high pressure ridge remaining in place north of the islands. Changes to the intensity of this ridge and an upper level low drifting through the region will produce subtle changes in the day to day weather impacts across the Hawaiian Islands over the next seven days.

The high pressure ridge roughly 1000 miles north of the islands will maintain a solid trade wind flow pattern across the islands through the upcoming week. A slight weakening in the trade wind speeds are expected on today before a stronger high pressure center moves into the region from the northwest, reinforcing the ridge north of the islands, and increasing trade wind speeds across the state from Sunday through Wednesday. Passing clouds and showers will continue to favor windward sections of each island.

One wrinkle in the cloud and precipitation forecast arrives in the form of changing upper level instability. An elongated trough, also known as the TUTT, will remain in place northwest of the islands the through the week with a subtropical jet stream flowing from west to east along the southern edge of this trough. Upper level forcing will produce periods of high level cirrus clouds passing over the islands through Wednesday. Meanwhile divergence aloft and added thermal instability caused by upper level lows moving along this trough axis will lift the height of the trade wind inversion and bring enhanced showers to the western islands, mainly Kauai and Oahu, through Sunday morning. Another period of enhanced showers may develop for the second half of next week as additional atmospheric lift is created as a weak upper level low settles in over the Aloha state. Shower activity and coverage for the long range forecast period will need adjustment over time as the intensity and location of this upper level low will likely evolve as the time period gets closer.

The short and long range forecast grids are in good shape and only slight adjustments were needed to the morning forecast grid package. The high consistency trade wind solution in the models leads to a high confidence in the wind forecast with medium confidence in the timing and coverage of rainfall activity.

A Special Weather Statement (SPSHFO) continues to highlight the potential for volcanic emissions and ashfall from Halemaumau Crater on the Big Island. After what appeared to be a relatively quiet period yesterday and overnight, with very little in the way of ash emissions, web cams this morning indicated an increase in ash emanating from the crater. A magnitude 5.4 earthquake on Friday afternoon led to an ash/steam plume that briefly extended up to about 10000 feet. The SPS also highlights the potential for Pele’s hair and other volcanic emissions that are being transported downwind from high fountaining fissures in Leilani Estates.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 72. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69 at the shore to 52 to 59 upcountry. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph in the late evening and overnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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