The National Weather Service had extended the High Surf Advisory through 6am this morning due to a large windswell affecting our east and northeast facing shores, but it is set to expire this morning and will most likely not be extended. This windswell is on the way down but may still have some good sets left over today, but it should drop fairly quickly over the next couple of days. A new south swell has arrived and will provide our summer shores with more moderate surf potentially to overhead levels at many of the better breaks while lesser breaks pull in fun-sized sets. This swell should stick around into the weekend but there isn’t anything to follow it, so get what you can while it’s here. We’ll be beginning a relatively flat period after the weekend. Pray for surf!
South facing shores should rise into the 3-5+ foot range today, and select breaks could see overhead sets rolling through if you know where to go. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores may still come in around high levels this morning but will drop down into the 3-5+ foot range through the day and will most likely be down to tiny to small levels by tomorrow. North and northwest facing shores have been pulling in this wrapping windswell and will continue today around 2-4+ foot range, potentially a bit higher at the best breaks. Upper West shores may also still see some of this wrapping windswell but most areas will only be around 1-3 foot.
Extended Surf Forecast
Once again, I just don’t have the time needed to pull together a good forecast… but there isn’t much on the way right now anyway. Get it while it’s here!
South Pacific Outlook
The Tasman Sea was quite active earlier this month and sent up a series of very large swells toward Fiji. Unfortunately, much of this energy was blocked from reaching our islands, but we still managed to pull in some fun sets along our summer shores. The last of these swells is nearly here but won’t be nearly as good as the prior swells. This next swell was generated as a low developed off the ice shelf far southwest of Tasmania last Wednesday, taking aim toward New Zealand’s southern island. A fairly long-lived fetch was aimed up the Tasman Sea. We shouldn’t expect all that much here on Maui due to the direction, as Kaho`olawe will block most of it. However, we could still see some fun-sized sets rolling through Tuesday. The good news is that another west-northwest swell is also due to arrive Tuesday which will increase the odds for our summer shores. This swell was produced by former typhoon Mawar as it recurved into the Northwest Pacific and slowly drifted toward the east-northeast as it dissipated and veered again toward the Aleutian Islands. The models are suggesting a series of gales forming southeast and east of New Zealand beginning Monday that should send up a couple of south-southwest to south swells that would begin around next Monday, potentially lasting through much of next week. The jetstream then takes on an unfavorable pattern, so get it while it’s here.
North Pacific Outlook
As mentioned above, former typhoon Mawar recurved past Japan last Wednesday and entered into the North Pacific storm track, setting up a fairly long-lived west-northwest swell that should arrive as early as Monday night but more likely Tuesday. The storm veered sharply toward the east last Thursday, but it was already fading by that time. The long distance this swell had to travel to reach our shores will greatly decrease the significance, but hopefully we’ll see head-high sets or possibly higher at the best exposed breaks. The North Pacific doesn’t offer much else in the near future, but the models do indicate the potential for a weak gyre to form near the dateline around Thursday. If all goes well we may see back-to-back west-northwest to northwest swells arriving Saturday and Sunday, probably at just overhead levels. Check back for details later in the week.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.2 foot at 2:36am late last night, dropping to a low of -0.3 foot at 8:54am this morning, rising again to a high of 2.6 foot at 4:19pm this afternoon, then dropping once more to a low of 0.7 foot at 11:01pm late this evening. The sunrise was at 5:45am early this morning and will set at 7:09pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter phase this upcoming Tuesday.
Sunset: 6:58 PM
Moderate trade winds will continue into the first half of the weekend, before increasing again early next week. An area of clouds and showers riding in on the trades will persist tonight across portions of the area before moving west of the islands Thursday. Another increase in trade showers is expected early next week as the trades increase. High pressure far north of the state will continue to drive moderate to locally strong tradewinds over the state as the airmass stabilizes and becgins a rather dry period. Most of the moisture left over from a dissipated front is out of the area now but some windward areas could still see a light shower or two. The high pressure will remain firmly rooted in place and is forecast to strengthen again later in the week, however, a remnant frontal boundary will likely pass between the high and Hawai`i which will keep the winds on the more moderate side for us. This remnant front may actually reach the islands late in the weekend or early next week, potentially increasing the tradewinds locally as well as an increase in rainfall. Stay tuned.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph and gusty.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 71. Northeast winds around 15 mph.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 55 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph and gusty.
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows around 48 at 7000 feet to around 44 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.