Fading surf should be expected on both sides of the island today as the out-of-season northwest swell drops to tiny levels and the long-lived south-southwest to south swell slowly decreases. South shores should still hold on to rideable surf around chest-high levels at the better locations, but it is definitely on the way down. Another northwest swell is being whipped up not too far to our northwest which should give us another small but fun-sized and well deserved swell that arrives Sunday. The region southeast and east of New Zealand continues to pump out swells aimed quite nicely toward Hawai`i which should begin around Monday of next week, potentially reaching well overhead levels at the best breaks. This series of summer swells should continue into the following weekend. A system developing off the northern California coastline will need to be watched over the next several days, potentially aiming a fetch toward our islands. More details to come as it unfolds.
South facing shores should still see surf in the 3-5 foot range today but it is slowly fading and may not offer too much tomorrow, so get it while it’s still around. North and northwest facing shores may see tiny leftovers out of the northwest around 2-4 foot at the best locations while other areas go back to flatness. Upper West shores will stay flat or close to it at 0-3 foot. The windswell along our east facing shores is still pau at only 0-2 foot but should begin to rise again later in the weekend.
Extended Surf Forecast
South Pacific Outlook
The Tasman Sea was quite active earlier this month and sent up a series of very large swells toward Fiji. Unfortunately, much of this energy was blocked from reaching our islands, but we still managed to pull in some fun sets along our summer shores. The last of these swells is nearly here but won’t be nearly as good as the prior swells. This next swell was generated as a low developed off the ice shelf far southwest of Tasmania last Wednesday, taking aim toward New Zealand’s southern island. A fairly long-lived fetch was aimed up the Tasman Sea. We shouldn’t expect all that much here on Maui due to the direction, as Kaho`olawe will block most of it. However, we could still see some fun-sized sets rolling through Tuesday. The good news is that another west-northwest swell is also due to arrive Tuesday which will increase the odds for our summer shores. This swell was produced by former typhoon Mawar as it recurved into the Northwest Pacific and slowly drifted toward the east-northeast as it dissipated and veered again toward the Aleutian Islands. The models are suggesting a series of gales forming southeast and east of New Zealand beginning Monday that should send up a couple of south-southwest to south swells that would begin around next Monday, potentially lasting through much of next week. The jetstream then takes on an unfavorable pattern, so get it while it’s here.
North Pacific Outlook
As mentioned above, former typhoon Mawar recurved past Japan last Wednesday and entered into the North Pacific storm track, setting up a fairly long-lived west-northwest swell that should arrive as early as Monday night but more likely Tuesday. The storm veered sharply toward the east last Thursday, but it was already fading by that time. The long distance this swell had to travel to reach our shores will greatly decrease the significance, but hopefully we’ll see head-high sets or possibly higher at the best exposed breaks. The North Pacific doesn’t offer much else in the near future, but the models do indicate the potential for a weak gyre to form near the dateline around Thursday. If all goes well we may see back-to-back west-northwest to northwest swells arriving Saturday and Sunday, probably at just overhead levels. Check back for details later in the week.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.04 foot at 5:01am early this morning, rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 12:43pm just after noon, dropping to a low of 1.1 foot at 6:59pm this evening, then rising a bit to a high of 1.3 foot at 10:33pm later tonight. The sunrise was at 5:44am this morning and will set at 7:08pm this evening. The Moon is in a waning crescent phase and will reach New Moon this Tuesday.
Sunset: 7:09 PM
A weak ridge north of the islands will keep gentle to locally moderate east southeast winds across Hawaii through the next couple of days. Low clouds and showers will focus on windward and southeastern sides of the islands while local sea breezes during the day will result in afternoon clouds over leeward and interior areas through Friday. More typical trade wind weather as well as stronger trade winds will return over the weekend into early next week as a strong high moves to north of Hawaii. The weak surface ridge will continue to bring light east-southeasterly winds across the silands for another day or two, light enough to allow land and sea breezes as well as increased cloudiness in the afternoon. The airmass over the islands will stay rather dry, so any rain showers that may develop should stay light. The ridge is expected to pull away toward the north around Friday evening as the high pressure far to the northeast strengthens and shifts toward the west resulting in a strengthening of the tradewinds over the weekend. Wind speeds should return to strong levels by Sunday as will a typical tradewind weather pattern.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 54 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 50 at 7000 feet to around 46 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.