Surf Outlook for Monday, June 10th 2019

South Shores:
2 to 4 feet today, lowering to 2 to 3 feet tonight and Tuesday
East Shores:
2 to 3 feet through Tuesday
North Shores:
2 to 3 feet today, lowering to 2 feet or less Tuesday
West Shores:
1 to 3 feet today, lowering to 2 feet or less tonight and Tuesday

A surface ridge north of Kauai will keep gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds blowing today. The ridge will then lift northward and strengthen, causing trades to increase, possibly to Small Craft Advisory levels across the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island on Tuesday. Little change in the trade wind speeds are expected Wednesday into the weekend, with border line SCA conditions holding around Maui and the Big Island.

Small surf will prevail along south facing shores through mid week, with elevated surf due late Thursday. About a week ago, a compact gale just east of New Zealand generated a south-southwest swell that will produce mainly summertime background level surf today. Small, inconsistent southwest swell out of the Tasman Sea will be the dominant source for south facing shores during the middle of the work week. A storm low entered the Hawaii swell window to the south and east of New Zealand last Thursday. Long period forerunners from this south-southwest swell are expected to arrive late Thursday, and as the swell peaks on Friday and Saturday, advisory level surf will be possible.

Small surf will prevail along north and east facing shores this week. The current small northwest swell will decrease today. Additional small pulses of northwest swell are expected from Thursday into the weekend. With trade winds running weaker than normal, small surf will continue along east facing shores. Even as trades strengthen a notch Tuesday and Wednesday, local wind swell will remain below June average into the weekend.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:42 am this morning and will set at 07:08 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 8 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 8:31 AM on Monday, June 17th.

Weather Outlook for Monday, 10th June 2019

Summary

A high pressure ridge just north of the Hawaiian Islands will produce light and variable winds over the state today. Trade wind speeds will increase into the moderate to locally breezy range from Tuesday into next weekend. A relatively stable atmosphere will keep shower activity to a minimum through the week.

Detailed Discussion

A few bands of showers are seen on radar this morning mainly in the offshore and coastal water areas. Light offshore land breezes prevail at most locations with a weak background east to southeast wind flow. Satellite imagery continues to show fairly shallow and stable bands of low clouds under strong subsidence aloft.

The long wave pattern in the North Pacific basin continues to be anchored in place with a high pressure ridge along the west coast of the US, and a seasonably deep trough across the Central Pacific. This large scale pressure pattern will remain in place for at least the next seven day forecast period with only subtle changes to Hawaiian weather.

The Hawaiian Islands will remain along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge axis. Wind speeds will stay light and variable today with a weak east to southeast background wind flow. These large scale wind speeds will be light enough to allow local scale land and sea breezes to develop. Expect interior cloud ceilings in the afternoon hours today with clouds clearing up overnight.

Surface pressure gradients will increase slightly starting on Tuesday, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing across the state through the upcoming weekend. A high pressure ridge aloft will keep temperature inversion heights low capping vertical cloud development for most islands. A weak upper trough passes north of the state on Thursday, possibly increasing windward and mauka shower activity in the overnight and early morning hours for some islands.

Overall a mostly dry trade wind weather pattern continues through next Sunday. The best chances for rainfall activity will occur along the eastern slopes of the Big Island this week. Long range model solutions are in good agreement with this stable weather pattern.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91 at the shore to 70 to 78 upcountry. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.