1-3 foot
0-2 foot
2-4 foot
2-5 foot

Fresh to strong trade winds associated with high pressure north of the islands will continue Saturday, then slightly weaken through the second half of the weekend as a weak surface trough approaches and moves through the islands. Small craft advisory conditions across the typically windier channel waters, Ma`alaea Bay and south of the Big Island will continue today before dropping just below advisory levels tonight into Sunday. Trades will surge back Sunday night through the first half of the upcoming week as the trough weakens and shifts west of the area and high pressure strengthens to the north.

Rough surf along east facing shores will continue Saturday, then lower temporarily Sunday as the trades slightly back off. This will be short-lived due to trades that are forecast to surge back across the waters and upstream of the state through the first half of the upcoming week. This will generate rough surf along east facing shores once again Tuesday through midweek.

Surf along southern shores will peak Saturday below advisory levels, then slowly ease Sunday into the upcoming week as a small south-southwest (210-220 deg) swell fills in from a storm- to hurricane-force low several days ago across the Tasman Sea. This source peaked at the Samoa buoy a few days ago and is now showing up locally within the 17 to 19 second bands at the local buoys south of the islands Saturday morning. Looking ahead into next week, no significant changes are anticipated along southern shores due to a persistent blocking pattern that remains well established east of New Zealand, where the typical swell generation region for Hawaii is. This blocking high east of New Zealand is shunting large storm systems farther east across the south Pacific, where much of that energy is focusing toward the Americas and only sending small, background, south-southeast swell toward Hawaii. The other generation source for Hawaii is the Tasman Sea, where another gale is currently located. WAVEWATCH III picks up on this south- southwest swell (220 deg) and indicates it arriving across the Hawaiian waters late next week. This source will likely come in smaller than the current Tasman swell filling in.

Up north, outside of a small north-northwest source (2 ft at 10 seconds) expected to persist through the weekend, mainly wrap is expected to support surf next week into the typically exposed locations from the strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. Otherwise, nothing significant is anticipated.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.4 foot at 3:27 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.3 foot at 10:34 AM this morning, then dropping to a low of 1.1 foot at 2:48 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 8:36 PM early this evening

The sunrise was at 05:47 am this morning and will set at 07:12 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 8 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 4:08 AM on Sunday, July 9th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

Wind: n/a at 0 mph
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Moderate to breezy trade winds will ease to moderate levels tonight through the weekend as a weak surface trough passes from east to west across the island chain. Periods of showery weather are expected for the next couple days in association with this trough, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Showers will also reach leeward areas more regularly due to the somewhat unstable conditions associated with an upper level disturbance passing over the island chain. Breezy conditions along with drier and more stable conditions will then return beginning on Monday and lingering through much of next week.

Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high centered around 950 miles north-northwest of Kauai, is driving moderate to breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough of low pressure is located around 200 miles east of Hilo. Aloft, an upper level low is evident in water vapor imagery around 600 miles northeast of Hilo, with upper troughing extending southwestward and over the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across the State, with cloud cover most prevalent over Kauai, Maui County and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into windward sections of Kauai, Maui County and the Big Island, with shower coverage more spotty across Oahu. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances.

Today through Sunday night, High pressure north of the State will keep the trade winds blowing right through the weekend. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds today will east into the moderate range tonight through the remainder of the weekend, as a weakening surface trough of low pressure shifts westward across the island chain. MIMIC total precipitable water (PW) imagery shows values in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range across the State, and this lines up well with the 12Z observed soundings at PHLI and PHTO which came in at 1.54 and 1.71 inches respectively. Meanwhile, inversion heights at both sites have increased to around 10 kft. Model solutions show PW values hovering in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range through the weekend, which is above normal for this time of year. Additionally, as the upper level low shifts westward to the north of the islands, a trailing upper trough will move westward over the island chain, and this will de-stabilize the airmass and elevate inversion heights. As a result, we expect periods of showery weather right through the weekend. Showers will continue to focus over windward and mauka areas, but will also spread leeward more regularly due to the elevated inversion heights and persistent trade winds.

Monday through next Friday, The weak surface trough or what’s left of it, will shift west of the islands Monday morning, allowing surface high pressure north of the State to exert more of an influence on the area. As a result, we expect the trade winds to ramp back up to breezy levels by Monday afternoon and continue through at least the middle of next week. For the end of next week, the ECMWF keeps breezy trade winds in place, while the GFS shows the trades easing due to a frontal boundary shifting southward towards the islands. For now will utilize a blend of the two solutions, and show a slight easing of the trades for the end of next week. Aloft, upper level ridging will build in from the east, stabilizing the airmass over the island chain through mid-week. Upper level heights are then expected to lower slightly for the end of next week.

Overall, drier and more stable conditions are expected to move into the State on Monday, although some showery weather may continue into the morning hours due to convergence associated with the return of breezy trade winds. The dry and stable airmass will then remain in place through mid-week, with an increase in trade wind showers expected for the end of next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the period, with a stray shower reaching leeward areas mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 59 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows around 69 at the shore to around 53 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69 at the shore to 53 to 58 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph decreasing to 25 mph in the late evening and overnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - June 24th, 2017