4-7 foot
1-3 foot
1-3 foot
2-4 foot

A new west-northwest swell is arriving in island waters this morning, but latest observations from buoy 51101 (NW of Kauai) indicate swell/wave heights slightly lower than anticipated. The expectation is that the swell will continue to rise to forecast values, and a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for north and west facing shores of Kauai County. This particular swell direction places Oahu and Maui County in the “swell shadow” of Kauai and Oahu respectively, where increasing surf is expected today, but heights will remain below advisory levels. This swell will bring advisory-level surf to the west facing shores of the Big Island by tonight, and the HSA has been expanded to include these shores. The swell will peak tonight then gradually diminish through Monday.

A larger west-northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and continue into Friday, producing advisory-level surf along most north and west facing shores, especially when it becomes increasingly northwest by Thursday. Surf heights may reach warning levels, and the forecast will be fine-tuned as the explosively-developing low tracks across the north Pacific. Latest guidance is suggesting an even larger north-northwest swell arriving next weekend as another powerful low emerges off the coast of Japan.

High pressure to the northeast will be reinforced by another high passing north of the islands tonight into Sunday, maintaining locally strong (near gale force in the Alenuihaha channel) trade winds into Monday. A decrease in wind speeds is expected Tuesday as a front approaches the area from the NW. As the front stalls and weakens near Kauai Tuesday night and Wednesday, a new high building northwest of the area will bring increasing trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for many zones due to a combination of winds and increasing seas tonight, and will remain in place through the weekend. Although winds will likely be below SCA criteria early next week, the large WNW/NW swell will result in combined seas over 10 feet, warranting a SCA for most zones.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 07:03 am this morning and will set at 06:01 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 20 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 10:26 PM on Monday, January 8th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

79°/82°
Wind: NE at 26 mph
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM
current observations as of 1pm May 22nd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 6th January 2018

Summary

Breezy trade winds will continue through Sunday, with moderate trades on Monday. A weak front approaching the islands from the northwest will produce lighter winds from Tuesday into mid-week. A mostly dry weather pattern will persist today, with brief showers over windward areas. An increase in low-level moisture moving in from the east will bring more windward showers from tonight and Sunday into early next week, but most leeward areas should remain dry. Also, expect an increase in showers Tuesday night and Wednesday over Kauai and Oahu ahead of the front.

Detailed Discussion

A surface ridge extends southwest from a 1027 mb surface high centered near 30N 150W through a point about 300 miles north of Lihue. The tight pressure gradient south of these features is maintaining breezy trade winds across the state early this morning. Aloft, mid- to upper-level ridging remains in the vicinity of the islands, which is keeping the atmosphere stable as evidenced by low-level trade wind subsidence inversions of 5 to 7 thousand feet. In addition, rather dry atmospheric conditions persist across the region, with precipitable water (PW) values of less than one inch near the smaller islands west of Maui, and near 1 inch in the vicinity of the windward Big Island and Maui.

Satellite imagery shows mainly broken low clouds, a mix of stable stratocumulus with some cumulus clouds, moving across the windward coastal waters into the islands. Broken low clouds are also along the windward sections of some of the islands from Oahu to the Big Island, while windward Kauai has scattered to locally broken low clouds. Radar reflectivities show light showers embedded within some of the low clouds upwind of the islands, mainly from Moloka`i to the windward Big Island.

Forecast guidance shows surface high pressure remaining north of the state and ridging aloft providing stable conditions across the region this weekend. Therefore, breezy trades will persist through Sunday night. Dry conditions will also continue today, with brief light showers over windward and mauka sections. Leeward sections will remain mostly dry. However, the forecast models and satellite derived PW depict a modest increase in low- level moisture moving in towards the islands from the east from later today through early Sunday. As a result, a slight increase in rainfall over windward sections is expected tonight and Sunday. Rainfall totals over windward areas will continue to be relatively light, since the upper-level ridge will remain in place.

On Monday, the western end of the surface ridge north of the islands will begin to erode as a front moves toward the region. The trade winds will initially weaken to moderate to locally breezy speeds on Monday. The front is projected to be around 800 miles west-northwest of Kauai late Monday night. As a result, the trade winds are expected to continue weakening early Tuesday, especially over the western end of the island chain. At the same time, an upper-level trough is forecast to dig down toward the state from the northwest. This will cause the upper-level ridge weaken and shift eastward, which will allow some destabilization of the atmosphere. In addition, it will support the front approaching the western islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. This front appears to be near Kauai by Wednesday, where it will likely stall and weaken Wednesday night and early Thursday. Increased moisture along and ahead of this front will likely produce increased shower coverage over the western islands.

The latest forecast indicates northeast winds will fill in briefly over the western two-thirds of the state Wednesday night as the front weakens. This will be followed by lighter east to northeast winds from Thursday through Friday.

A somewhat typical trade wind pattern is expected to remain in place over the eastern end of the state through the upcoming week. Trade showers are forecast to remain prevalent over windward sections of the Big Island and Maui, since sufficient low-level moisture will remain available, along with less stable atmospheric conditions due to the departure of the upper-level ridge.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated light showers. Lows 63 to 71. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Lows 56 to 67. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 65 at the shore to 50 to 56 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

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