4-6 foot
2-4 foot
1-3 foot
2-4 foot

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Trade winds will continue to gradually trend down through the next 36 hours. Moderate to strong trade winds will continue through this morning before the real weakening process begins. A Small Craft Advisory has been hoisted for the windward Big Island waters as the trades veer a little to the south-east there later this morning. The windward Big Island waters joins the other marine zones, basically the waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island, to the existing SCA, which is good until 6 pm HST this afternoon.

The winds will be veering from the east to the south-east over the western half of the island chain late this afternoon, then to the south late tonight. Winds will become light and variable over the surrounding waters on Sunday, especially over the western half of the island chain, while east to south-east winds prevails elsewhere.

The light and variable winds are the result of a surface ridge, currently 350 nm north of Kauai, settling over the northern islands by Sunday afternoon. This ridge will stay put through Monday, while a front drops into, stall, and dissipate over the northern offshore waters. A weak ridge maintain its position just north of the islands through the middle of next week as another front passes through the far northern offshore waters.

A small reinforcing northwest swell will hold through today, maintaining surf in the 5-8 foot range along the north facing shores before subsiding. The northwest swell will be small through early next week.

By the middle of next week, we may begin to see a combination of moderate northwest and north swells. A zonal flow is forecast to take shape between Japan and the U.S. West Coast, with some strong impulses further to the north. One of those pulses will be a strong storm system that will bring some potentially large swells to the north and west facing shores late next week.

The trade wind swell will continue to gradually lower through the weekend as the trades trend downward. Borderline high surf for the east facing shores will continue through at least this morning before lowering.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 07:02 am this morning and will set at 06:00 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 29 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 11:49 AM on Saturday, December 15th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 9am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 5th January 2019

Summary

Locally breezy trade winds today will ease tonight through Sunday as the high moves off to the northeast. Low clouds and showers carried by the winds will affect mainly windward and mauka areas. Winds will generally stay on the lighter side next week with only brief periods of trades expected. Moisture associated with frontal boundaries may bring an uptick in shower activity mainly across the northern islands at times throughout next week.

Detailed Discussion

Locally breezy trade winds continue early this morning as high pressure is present several hundred miles north-northwest of the state. A thin band of clouds that represents the remnants of an old front has just reached the windward areas of the islands, as revealed by latest satellite imagery as well as radar data. As expect, this band is not bringing much showers the area. Airmass in the island vicinity remains rather dry and quite stable as depicted by early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings. In all, another trade wind weather day is expected for the islands, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward areas. Lee areas will stay dry.

A rather progressive weather pattern has developed over the north Pacific, with frontal systems advancing swiftly from west to east. Forecast solutions indicated mainly tail end portions of these frontal systems may reach the area through next week. First of these systems is expected to pass north of the islands Sunday. Expect trade winds to decrease tonight, and by Sunday, the high will have moved far northeast of the area, with a ridge sagging near the islands. This will result in synoptic winds turning southeast across the area by late tonight. Forecast solutions then indicated some local circulation will develop in the island vicinity, bringing northerly winds to the smaller islands on Sunday. Winds will be light enough for local land and sea breezes to become more widespread. Not much changes in the moisture are expected in the island vicinity, though daytime cloudiness with some showers during the afternoon and evening over the islands are possible with the sea breezes.

As the first frontal system passes to the northeast on Monday, the tail end of this system is expected to sag close to the northern islands. Northerly winds will continue over much of the northern islands, while the Big Island will see more easterly winds. The northern islands may see an increase in clouds and showers Monday into Tuesday, while more convective weather will continue for the rest of the main Hawaiian islands, with daytime cloudiness and showers.

A high pressure will follow closely behind that first front, passing north of the area late Monday into Tuesday. Thus trades will return briefly in that time frame. This high will then move off to the northeast Wednesday and Thursday, followed by another front closely behind. Winds will become light once again by Wednesday over the area. Furthermore, moisture from the tail end of this second frontal system may reach the northern islands late Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, another increase in clouds and showers may be in store for the northern islands by then.

This weather process is expected to repeat once again for the area over the next weekend, with another set of high and frontal system passing north of the islands.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 65 to 81. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 62 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 55 upcountry. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 47 to 57. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.