2-4 foot
1-3 foot
0-2 foot
4-6 foot

Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels for the next few days. A persistent east swell from strong winds east of 150W will gradually subside through next week. Lows to the north will send a series of small to moderate north swells through Hawaiian waters. The largest of the north swells is expected to peak around Monday night or Tuesday, with surf remaining below the advisory threshold. Distant storms off Japan will produce some small northwest swells for the next few days as well. A new storm low forming next week may finally produce a large northwest swell arriving next Thursday and possibly continuing to build into Saturday. Surf from this swell will likely be well above the advisory threshold along north and west facing shores. See the Collaborative Surf Discussion for more information.

A front 100 nm northwest of Kauai is moving southeast at 5 to 10 kt and weakening. The subtropical ridge has shifted southeast ahead of the front. Gentle to fresh easterly trade winds persist near the Big Island, but a col, or neutral point is producing gentle and variable winds elsewhere around the main Hawaiian islands. These gentle and variable winds will persist through this evening. The front will dissipate by this evening as a ridge builds northwest of the area. Gentle to moderate northeast trade winds will spread over the area overnight and persist through Monday. Winds will veer rapidly beginning Monday night as a stronger front approaches from the northwest. The front is expected to move over the coastal waters Tuesday night. This front may stall over the area as another front approaches from the northwest, but the forecast remains uncertain.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 07:02 am this morning and will set at 06:15 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 10 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 1:27 PM on Wednesday, January 31st.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 5am October 22nd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 27th January 2018

Summary

A land and sea breeze pattern will prevail over most of the state today, with light trades returning Sunday through early next week. Clouds and showers will be most prevalent over the interior of the islands during the afternoon and evening hours, with partial clearing and a few mainly windward showers expected at night. Conditions will be most unstable Sunday afternoon, with some heavier showers expected, along with the potential for a few thunderstorms. Drier conditions will then overspread the state Monday and Monday night. Winds will pick up out of the southwest Tuesday as a front approaches the from the northwest, with showers increasing from west to east down the island chain Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The front will stall out over the islands during the middle of the week, with yet another front expected to approach from the northwest on Friday.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening cold front is located around 120 miles northwest, while a broad ridge of high pressure is centered around 2100 miles northeast of Hilo. Light winds prevail across the entire island chain early this morning with land breezes in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across the state. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows a band of light rain drifting northward through the Big Island, with generally rain free conditions over the other islands. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances and the potential for thunderstorms over the next couple of days.

Today through Sunday night, The weakening front will shift southeastward today, then stall out and slowly dissipate over or near Kauai tonight and Sunday as a weak ridge builds to the north of the island chain. Winds should remain light enough today and tonight to keep a predominantly land and sea breeze pattern in place. Light trades are then expected to return on Sunday, however localized sea breezes and land breezes will likely still occur in the more sheltered leeward areas. Aloft, upper level troughing will linger over the state through the period, with the troughing sharpening up as it progresses slowly eastward Sunday and Sunday night.

As for sensible weather details, the band of light rain over the Big Island should fall apart over the next few hours. Light east- southeasterly boundary layer flow may allow a shower or two to drift into southeast facing sections of the Big Island and Maui through the morning hours however, with rain free conditions expected elsewhere. During the afternoon, daytime heating combined with sea breezes and instability aloft, should lead to scattered shower development over interior sections of all islands, with a thunderstorm or two possible again over the Big Island. Showers should diminish during the evening hours Saturday, with a few showers possible over mainly windward areas Saturday night through Sunday morning as weak boundary layer trade flow develops due to the weak ridge building north of the islands. Shower activity may be a bit higher over Kauai as a result of the stalled and dissipating front in the vicinity, and we can’t rule out a thunderstorm here either given the instability aloft.

Sunday afternoon things become a bit more interesting. Instability becomes pretty impressive as a result of the sharpening upper level trough, with H7-H5 lapse rates steepening to 7.0-7.5 C/KM and surface based CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/KG. As a result, shower coverage should be higher Sunday afternoon than Saturday afternoon, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible over the entire island chain. The Big Island and Maui are the two islands most likely to see thunderstorms however, and a few of these could be strong with gusty winds and hail not out of the question. Showers should end in most areas Sunday evening, with a few showers continuing mainly over windward sections after midnight as a result of the continued light boundary layer trade flow.

Monday through next Friday, Model solutions are in good agreement through Tuesday, with some difference noted from mid to late week resulting in a steady decrease in confidence as the week progresses. Overall, the sharp upper level trough is forecast to lift northeast and away from the islands on Monday, with weak ridging aloft building in through Monday night, before the next upper trough approaches on Tuesday. Winds will remain light Monday and Monday night, resulting in a continued land and sea breeze pattern across the state. A cold front will then approach from the northwest on Tuesday, with winds shifting around to the south and southwest ahead of it. The ECMWF is more progressive with the front, pushing it into the western islands late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening, with the front then dissipating over the central islands on Wednesday. The GFS on the other hand pushes the front into the western islands Tuesday night with the front dissipating over the western islands on Wednesday. Both models then show another cold front approaching from the northwest for the end of the work week, with the GFS pushing the front into the western islands on Friday, while the ECMWF stalls the front just to the west of the state. Given the difference in the model solutions, will utilize a blended forecast approach until guidance comes into better agreement.

As for sensible weather details, drier conditions are expected statewide Monday and Monday night, as a more stable airmass builds over the island chain. Will show showers then increasing from west to east across the state Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Quite a bit of uncertainty leads to low confidence in the forecast Wednesday through Friday, with the GFS painting a wet picture, particularly over the western end of the state, while the ECMWF shows much more settled conditions with less shower activity across the entire island chain. Given the uncertainty, we will need to keep rain chances in the forecast through the period and await better model agreement before refining the details.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze through the night. Lows 61 to 68. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 64 at the shore to 48 to 53 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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