3-6 foot
1-4 foot
1-3 foot
2-4 foot

As an area of high pressure passes north of the state, trade winds will increase and become fresh to locally strong through tonight. This will produce Small Craft Advisory winds across the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. Winds will ease slightly and begin to veer out of the southeast later tonight as a surface ridge moves toward the islands in response to an approaching front. On Sunday and early next week, the ridge will stall near Oahu, leading to southerly winds over the western half of the state and southeasterly winds near the Big Island and Maui.

A moderate and relatively short-period north-northwest swell will gradually decline through the rest of the weekend, followed by a series of overlapping northwest swells next week. The first of these swells will arrive Monday, with surf remaining below advisory levels. The next swell will arrive Tuesday and result in surf well above advisory levels for north and west facing shores Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this swell declines Thursday, a large reinforcing northwest will build, possibly leading to warning level surf late Thursday and Friday.

As trade winds pick up in the short term, a slight increase in short-period surf will occur along east facing shores. Later on, even though winds locally will remain southerly or weak easterly, stronger trade winds well east of the state may produce a bump in east shore surf during the middle of next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 07:03 am this morning and will set at 06:09 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 13 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 9:12 PM on Sunday, January 27th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 10am February 15th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 19th January 2019

Summary

Moderate to breezy trades will return for a brief period today, then shift toward the south and weaken tonight through Monday as another cold front approaches. This front is expected to stall and weaken near or just north of Kauai late Monday through Tuesday. Increasing moisture combined with this front stalling nearby will support the best rainfall chances setting up over Kauai through the first half of the week, especially through the afternoon hours as sea breezes setup. Elsewhere, drier conditions and light winds are expected.

Detailed Discussion

The morning satellite imagery showed a lingering moisture axis across the eastern end of the state that was supporting a band of low clouds and a few windward showers. This band of moisture combined with an upper trough and cold air aloft ended up triggering a few overnight thunderstorms along the Hamakua coast on the Big Island. The upper air sounding from Hilo reflected a sufficient amount of instability with decent mid-level lapse rates due to the cold air (-16C at 500mb). In addition to the thunderstorms, isolated heavy showers have continued over windward sections Maui between Haiku and Hana through a good portion of the overnight period with rainfall totals ranging from 1 to 2 inches (as of 2 AM HST). Elsewhere, drier conditions have filled in with mainly light to moderate windward showers occurring on Oahu. As the day continues, the upper trough should continue eastward allowing upper heights to rise over the state. This will translate to more of a stable pattern with moderate to breezy trades returning today.

The progressive pattern across the northern Pacific will continue Sunday through the upcoming week featuring a series of cold fronts passing to the north and the subtropical ridge shifting southward over the state. The first front in the series will approach and stall near or just north of Kauai Sunday night through the first half of the week. The local winds will shift toward the south and weaken ahead of this feature through the day Sunday. Increasing moisture combined with this front stalling near the western end of the state will support the best rainfall chances over and around Kauai through the first half of the week, especially through the afternoon hours as sea breezes setup.

Drier conditions along with light background trade wind flow are expected to hold across the eastern end of the island chain next week, with the exception being across leeward and interior areas where daytime sea breezes setup. Any showers that do develop will favor windward areas, except through the afternoon hours across leeward locations where clouds and a few showers associated with sea breezes will become a possibility through the afternoons.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 43 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 64 at the shore to 42 to 50 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 39 to 49. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.