15-25++ foot
10-15++ foot
0-3 foot
10-15+ foot

The largest northwest (315-325 deg) swell of the season continues to impact the islands this morning. The offshore buoy (51101) northwest of Kauai peaked through the early evening hours Saturday at 23 ft, which is corresponding to peak seas and surf over the exposed waters and beaches this morning over the smaller islands. For the Big Island, a peak around noon is anticipated before a slow downward trend begins later today.

Warning-level surf associated with this northwest swell will likely hold through Monday for exposed north and west facing shores, trend down to advisory levels Monday night through Tuesday, then drop below advisory levels through midweek as the swell eases. The latest wave model guidance appears to have backed off on the previously advertised large north-northwest swell filling in by midweek as a reinforcement.

Impacts associated with the large surf will include the potential for overwash onto vulnerable roadways (mainly at and around high tides through tonight) and significant beach erosion.

Local winds will remain light into tonight, then begin to strengthen through the week as high pressure builds north of the islands. Advisory-level winds will be possible as early as Monday/Tuesday for the windier channel waters east of Molokai, then across all or most waters Wednesday through Thursday. Winds may even near, if not reach, gale-force levels by Thursday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 07:04 am this morning and will set at 06:06 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 27 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 2:18 AM on Wednesday, January 17th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

85°/88°
Wind: ENE at 9 mph
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM
current observations as of 1pm February 24th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 14th January 2018

Summary

Light winds and mostly dry conditions will prevail today and tonight. Trade winds will return and strengthen through the first half of the work week, likely becoming quite strong by midweek. Windward and mauka showers will gradually increase as the trade winds build during the week, but leeward areas should remain mainly dry.

Detailed Discussion

Quiet and mainly dry weather prevails across the state on this early Sunday morning. Radars show no shower activity over the area, while rain gauges report no recent precipitation except for some isolated very light amounts on the windward Big Island. A surface ridge remains over the state, keeping background winds light and allowing the land and sea breeze pattern to continue. Water vapor imagery shows a deep layered ridge centered near the dateline and extending eastward over the state, while overnight infrared imagery depicts areas of broken to overcast low clouds on Kauai and the windward Big Island, with just few to scattered clouds elsewhere. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows a generally dry airmass over the state with estimated PW values around 1 inch over the smaller islands and up to 1.4 inches over the Big Island. The 12Z Hilo sounding shows moist low levels with a PW value of 1.43 inches, but dry mid levels above an inversion near 8000 feet. The 12Z Lihue sounding remains dry and stable with PW of 1 inch and a strong inversion based at 3500 feet.

The surface ridge is forecast to drift slowly northward today through Monday. This will allow light trade winds to return later today, but winds will remain weak enough to allow sea breeze development across many areas. Trade winds are forecast to gradually increase tonight and Monday, with sea breezes on Monday afternoon becoming confined to the more sheltered leeward areas. Rain chances will remain quite low throughout the next couple of days, especially over the western and central islands, as models show limited moisture with the deep layered ridge continuing to strengthen over the state. After one more day of interior/leeward clouds and isolated showers this afternoon, the pattern will shift to clouds and passing showers focused more on windward and mauka areas tonight and Monday as the trade winds gradually increase.

A much stronger surface high is forecast to build far to our north by midweek, in the wake of a weak front. The front will not have any direct impact on our weather, but the building high will cause trade winds to increase considerably by Wednesday, possibly to Wind Advisory threshold over land and gales over windier waters, at least according to the last several GFS runs. The last couple of ECMWF runs show the trade winds never getting as strong as the GFS, and starting to decrease again on Thursday and Thursday night as a surface trough develops well to the west of the state, but recent GFS runs keep the very strong trades into Thursday night and don’t really weaken the winds until late Friday. There is still plenty of time for the models to sort out their disagreements during the next few days. Even the GFS shows a return to a land and sea breeze pattern for the upcoming weekend as the trough further develops to our west, causing wind flow to veer to the southeast which brings Big Island blocking of the smaller islands into play.

Strengthening trades would normally bring increased showers to windward portions of the islands, but continued deep layered ridging aloft and below normal PW values should keep showers limited in strength and coverage through around Wednesday. A weak upper trough forecast to develop to our west along with a modest increase of low level moisture should increase rain chances, especially for windward areas, by the later part of the week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 67. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 62 to 81. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 63 at the shore to 47 to 52 upcountry. Light winds.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

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