10-20+ foot
8-12 foot
1-3 foot
2-4+ foot

A ridge just north of the islands will keep light easterly to variable winds over the area into the first half of next week. A front is expected to push down the island chain Thursday of next week. This will cause winds to blow out of the south starting about a day earlier on Wednesday.

The swell has reach deep ocean buoy 51001 and 51101, both located roughly 180 nm northwest of Kauai, within the past hour, which is up to 6 hours behind schedule. The ECMWF solution, with its slower time of up to six hour, is holding up much better than WAVEWATCH III, although the swell height is fairing better with WAVEWATCH III. With this said, the peak of the surf should now occur around midnight tonight, compared to early this evening. The swell is still set to peak at around 15 feet and 18 to 19 seconds. The surf of this size is dangerous to all beachgoers, so beachgoers should exercise extreme caution and heed all warning signs and lifeguard instructions. This swell is particularly dangerous due to its rapid rise from small to large surf within a couple of hours. Warning level surf will hold through Sunday, before lowering to advisory levels sometime Sunday night.

A High Surf Warning is effective for the north and or west facing shores of most of the smaller islands to 6 pm HST Sunday afternoon. There is a chance this warning will be extended. The High Surf Warning for the west facing shores of the Big Island is still on track of becoming effective at 6 pm HST this afternoon, although the highest surf will come later in the evening.

Due to the large northwest swell, the combined seas will also rise rapidly to Small Craft Advisory level of 10 feet or higher throughout today. This SCA covers all marine zones exposed to this large swell, and is good through late Sunday afternoon with the likelihood of an extension.

Latest WAVEWATCH III suggest potential warning level surf returning on Monday with a 12 foot 15 second period reinforcing swell. These values translate to low end warning, which also mean the High Surf Warning will likely be extended through Monday or Monday night. This prolong northwest swell finally starts to subside on Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday. Surf along north and west facing shores should drop below advisory levels by Wednesday night. This could be a brief lull as another large swell from the north or 350 degrees, is on tap for Thursday night. It is being generated by a storm system about 650 nm northwest of Kauai Wednesday, so the period will be a short 11 seconds. This low is part of the front forecast to move down the island chain Thursday through Friday. Warning level surf is possible along the north facing shores with this swell. More to come.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 07:03 am this morning and will set at 06:05 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 6 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 5:17 AM on Monday, January 21st.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8pm July 16th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 12th January 2019

Summary

Mostly dry conditions along with light trades will prevail across the state through the first half of the upcoming week. Showers will favor windward areas, except through the afternoon hours across leeward locations where clouds and a few showers associated with sea breezes will be possible. Rainfall accumulations, however, will remain limited with the dry air and stable conditions in place. A pattern shift will be a possibility through the second half of the upcoming week as a front approaches and moves into the area.

Detailed Discussion

The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery showed the subtropical ridge located over/just north of the islands (southward of its typical position) and a front laying out from east to west a few hundred miles north of the state. Satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) imagery depicted a band of higher moisture along this boundary to the north with values ranging from 1.3-1.5 inches. Much drier conditions were shown over the islands with values holding around an inch. The latest statewide rainfall summary reflected the dry conditions with peak 12-hr totals (through 2 am HST this morning) ranging from a tenth to under half of an inch (peak at Kepuni station on Maui with .38″).

Guidance remains in decent agreement through early next week and shows the subtropical ridge remaining in the vicinity of the islands as a series of fronts pass to the north. Mostly stable conditions will prevail due to the presence of dry air and ridging holding aloft. Showers will favor windward areas, except through the afternoon hours across leeward locations where clouds and a few showers associated with sea breezes will be possible. Rainfall accumulations, however, will remain limited with the dry air in place. Background trades will fluctuate in strength each day, with the strongest trades expected over the eastern end of the island chain.

Increasing rain chances can’t be ruled out through the second half of the upcoming week as the jet dips southward and drives a cold front toward the area. Guidance remains persistent and shows southerly winds (moderate to breezy Kona winds) and increasing moisture along this boundary setting up across the islands as it moves through. Additional fine tuning of the forecast through this period will be likely over the weekend into early next week as confidence steadily improves from cycle to cycle.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 65. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 53 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Lows 45 to 57. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.