10-15+ foot
4-6+ foot
2-5 foot
3-5 foot

A large northwest swell has arrived and will produce warning level surf across north and west facing shores of most of the smaller islands and across west facing shores of the Big island. High Surf Warnings are therefore in effect for these areas through Sunday afternoon. Surf is forecast to drop below warning level by Sunday evening, but will likely remain above advisory threshold through Monday. A persistent east swell is slowly subsiding and will fade out today.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most coastal waters. The northwest swell will boost seas above the 10-foot advisory threshold. A trough to the west and a ridge to the east will combine to produce southerly winds over the Hawaiian coastal waters through the weekend, locally reaching the 25 knot SCA threshold around the Big Island at times.

A strong front is expected to move into the coastal waters Sunday night. Thunderstorms are possible across coastal waters beginning Saturday night. The front is forecast to stall over the central coastal waters and weaken to a trough early next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 07:00 am this morning and will set at 06:19 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 3:55 PM on Wednesday, February 7th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 9am September 24th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 3rd February 2018

Summary

Warm and muggy conditions with light to moderate southerly winds will hold in place through the weekend as a broad upper trough and front remain positioned west of the state. Periods of heavy showers will remain possible each day, especially over the smaller northwest islands. A strong upper trough and cold front will approach and slowly move down the island chain late Sunday through midweek bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Drier air and northerly winds will gradually fill in across the state behind this front as a ridge of high pressure builds north of the state Tuesday through Thursday.

Detailed Discussion

Recently animated water vapor loop showed a broad upper trough positioned northwest of the state encompassing much of the central Pacific with several shortwave troughs rotating through its base. The latest surface analysis showed a gale-force low associated with the upper trough centered east of the date line around 1800 miles northwest of the islands and a cold front extending southwestward to an area a few hundred miles northwest of Kauai. A plume of tropical moisture continues to be drawn northward over the area within the deep southerly flow ahead of these synoptic features. Satellite imagery showed precipitable water (PW) values within this plume ranging from 1.5-1.8″ with embedded pockets up to 2″ over the smaller northwest islands (well above average for this time of year). A slightly drier environment is depicted over the southeastern end of the island chain (1.3-1.5″).

Today through tonight, guidance has initialized well with the current conditions and indicates no significant pattern changes. A plume of high PWs will remain positioned over the smaller northwest islands within the deep southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned front and upper trough to the west. Warm and muggy conditions with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s will continue. Bands of showers, some heavy at times, will develop and lift northward over the smaller northwest islands periodically. Any band that becomes focused and trains over any particular area could translate to flash flooding within a short period of time. Guidance suggests the mostly likely islands to be impacted will include: Ni`ihau and Kauai. Early morning radar trends also line up well with this potential, which support the line of heavy showers currently extending south from Ni`ihau lifting northward over Kauai through daybreak today. Slight chance of thunderstorms is introduced for Kauai and Ni`ihau tonight as upper heights begin to drop in response to the upper trough shifting eastward.

Sunday through Wednesday, guidance remains in good agreement and depicts a strong shortwave trough digging southeastward driving a cold front down the island chain beginning late Sunday night. Falling upper heights associated with the shortwave trough, a sufficient amount of deep layer shear (30-40 kt), instability and moisture will support another active period with heavy showers and thunderstorms developing and advancing down the island chain.

Initial impacts associated with this approaching front and upper trough may begin as early as Sunday for the northwest islands as the atmosphere begins to destabilize. In addition to the flooding potential where heavy bands of showers become focused, strong thunderstorms will become a possibility during this time. Provided the shear profiles expected through this period, a few rotating cells within these bands of heavy showers and storms will be possible. This threat will then advance down the island chain Monday through Tuesday as the front moves through. Deep moisture and cold temperatures aloft will also support a wintery mix for the Big Island summits Monday night through Tuesday night. Guidance is slightly slower with this package, which supports heavy showers and a few thunderstorms remaining in the forecast over the southeast end of the state into Wednesday before clearing.

Drier air and northerly winds will slowly fill in across the state behind this front Monday night through midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds north of the state and the front shifts east of the state.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 83 to 88. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 60 to 67. Light winds.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 66 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs around 83 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 50 upcountry. Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph early in the evening. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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