4-7 foot
3-5 foot
0-2 foot
4-6 foot

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to strong trades in place through tonight. The trades will diminish to moderate levels Sunday through Monday, then strengthen briefly back into the fresh to strong range on Tuesday as the gradient tightens over the island chain. Surface troughing will then develop over the state Wednesday, weakening the trades into the light to moderate range through Thursday. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds may then develop by the end of next week as high pressure sets up northwest of the state and low pressure develops off to the east.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine are through tonight, due to winds, seas or a combination of the two. Seas will remain elevated across portions of the marine area through Sunday, due to a series of west-northwest swells moving through the area.

Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated from Kauai eastward to Maui through tonight, and as a result, a High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect. Surf is expected to drop below HSA levels by Sunday morning. Several west-northwest swells are expected through middle of next week and will continue to produce moderate surf along north and west facing shores. The first in the series of swells is expected to arrive today, producing surf just below the advisory level along north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai this afternoon and tonight, and near the advisory level along west facing shores of the Big Island tonight and Sunday. The next west-northwest swell will likely remain below advisory levels for all shores Monday through Tuesday. Another west-northwest swell due in Tuesday night and Wednesday, may flirt with advisory levels for north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai. A large northwest swell is then expected to build late next week, potentially bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores on Friday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 07:00 am this morning and will set at 06:18 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 28 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 9:04 PM on Monday, February 4th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 6pm April 20th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 2nd February 2019

Summary

A wet and breezy start to the weekend is in store as a band of clouds associated with the tail-end of a front drifts south over the islands and an upper disturbance moves through. Although much of the shower coverage will focus over windward areas, some will manage to spill over into leeward sections periodically. A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is expected Sunday into the start of the upcoming week as drier air moves over the islands. Trades may weaken through middle to latter half of next week as another upper disturbance moves into the area.

Detailed Discussion

Water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge over the islands shifting eastward and weakening as a shortwave trough approaches. At the surface, the tail-end of a front was shown settling southward into the area bringing a band of clouds and showers into the smaller islands. Satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) imagery reflected this and depicted a band of higher moisture with PWs around 1.6″. The rainfall summary covering the past 12-hrs (through 2 AM HST) showed peak totals over Kauai and Oahu with values up to 2.33″ at Kilohana on Kauai and up to 1.84″ at Manoa Lyon Arboretum on Oahu.

The latest short-term guidance is lining up well the current pattern and supports wet and breezy trade wind conditions through tonight as the band of clouds and showers settles southward over the islands. Increasing instability associated with the previously mentioned upper trough moving into the area combined with this band of higher moisture will only enhance the rainfall potential. Some showers may be heavy and could lead to localized flooding if and where the heavier activity becomes focused for any duration. Although confidence is low, a few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out today due to the added instability. Much of the shower coverage will focus over windward areas, with some showers spilling over into leeward sections periodically.

A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is expected Sunday into the start of the upcoming week as drier air moves over the islands. Model PWs trend back down to around an inch or less (drier conditions). This drier air combined with rising upper heights should limit windward shower coverage and rainfall totals.

Trades could weaken by midweek as another upper trough moves into the area. Guidance shows a broad surface trough evolving over the state in response to the upper feature Wednesday through Thursday. If this pattern sets up as projected, light winds along with increasing moisture and instability will translate to higher rainfall chances once again. Additional modifications will be likely in the forecast through this extended period as confidence steadily rises over the coming days.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 60 to 67. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 59 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 64 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to 46 to 51 upcountry. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 42 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.